Theory question: check-raised on the river

[Guy McSucker]

Suppose you could look at every hand you ever played where you were check-raised on the river and you called holding one pair.

What % of the time do you think you would win?

What if we restrict to the cases where your hole cards are AA, KK or AK and you finish with one pair?

Guy.

[yourface]

isn't there some way to find out using PT?
I'm at work right now so I can't check, but I don't see why there wouldn't be.

I'm going to guess that I'm not winning enough of the time to keep paying off that bet. It'd be interesting to find out how big of a leak it is.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]
isn't there some way to find out using PT?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have put together an SQL query which gets the information from my DB, so I know the answer for my own play. I wondered what people expected the answer to be.

Guy.

[jba]

"What if we restrict to the cases where your hole cards are AA, KK or AK and you finish with one pair?"

first of all this depends on who you ask because a lot of people here pay off all the time. I'm guessing it is optimally in the 10-20% range if you play well. expand your query to include the pot size and you'll have a good idea if you're folding or calling too much. if you play well it should work out to be 1/avg pot size.

[imitation]

5%

[Absolution]

I'm sure it's low, but I think meta game is important here. How often do you think you will be folding the winner if you always fold to these check-raises? I think people will notice if you're folding to check-raises on the river all the time in presumably large pots.

[Guy McSucker]

[ QUOTE ]

if you play well it should work out to be 1/avg pot size


[/ QUOTE ]

I think it should be a little more because you will have a bunch of hands that are better than breakeven to call but not strong enough to threebet.

Guy.

[jba]

^^^^ you are absolutely right. probably a lot more than what I said then.

[milesdyson]

it also depends on what you define "avg pot size."

many pots are 1 or 2 bb. when we hold top pair on the river, the pot is never that small. usually 4 bb go in postflop by the time we bet the river, and often we raise preflop. i think the average by the time we get to this spot and have a decision is

2.5 bb pf + 1 bb flop + 2 bb turn + 3 bb river = 8.5 bb

so you'll breakeven at 1/9.5 = ~11%. i think we all call these too much and our actual # is more like 5%.

[jba]

miles - I mean avg pot size when this particular line happens. it shouldn't be hard for guy to include that.

if it's really 5% than we are playing this really really badly because like guy said these should include a bunch of cases where we are actually good like 25% (or even a favorite). if it's less than the avg pot size we play bad - probably really bad.