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#21
09-08-2006, 05:58 AM
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Re: To hedgers: Adding insult to injury
lol I love how people who let it ride when the line was at -5/-4.5 talk about how the hedgers gave up EV
when the line moved to even hedging when it was -5/-4.5 was much much more +EV than letting it ride at -5/-4.5 was nice suckout fish 
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#24
09-08-2006, 09:13 AM
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Re: To hedgers: Adding insult to injury
OP
you can't figure out what's optimal for others without considering their attitude towards risk
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#25
09-08-2006, 09:55 AM
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Re: To hedgers: Adding insult to injury
And you can't start this kind of thread without looking like a pompous ass. I didn't hedge, but I'm not so arrogant as to presume what was best for me is also best for everyone else.
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#26
09-08-2006, 11:19 AM
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Re: To hedgers: Adding insult to injury
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] pzhon, it was EV to hedge if you got a nice kickback or sign up bonus elsewhere with the same line or better... end of story. [/ QUOTE ] Oh, and those +EV sign up bonuses elsewhere couldn't have been used at any other time, and required you to bet exactly what was needed to hedge 100%? What an unbelievable coincidence. I thought most of you had made a common, understandable error, and instead you were all optimizing perfectly. My bad; carry on. <font color="white">When was the last time someone admitted being wrong on the internet? </font> [/ QUOTE ] I think pzhon is my favorite 2+2 poster. The poster who just called OP pompous is ridiculous. He is pointing out an interesting hedging observation, one that many posters here probably missed. No where is he telling you exactly what to bet, as he notes that is dependent upon your risk tolerance level (3rd paragraph of OP).
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#27
09-08-2006, 11:36 AM
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Re: To hedgers: Adding insult to injury
If the Dolphins won and the Steelers didn't cover than somebody would start a thread about how anyone who didn't hedge was foolish for not hedging.
And where is the insult or injury? The hedgers who got their bets in on time make a profit of around $450+ and a bonus from another book along perhaps SIA ($250) risk free. Interesting how people post things like this after the game after they know the outcome then everyone is an expert.
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#28
09-08-2006, 11:47 AM
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Re: To hedgers: Adding insult to injury
Once Rothlisberger got hurt it was impossible to hedge if you were already at Pitt -5. Once it dropped to 4, the juice was too much to make a hedge +EV.
Those of you counting your sign up bonuses and referrals at SIA as part of your hedge are misled. The rest of us will get those later as well.
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#29
09-08-2006, 11:51 AM
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Re: To hedgers: Adding insult to injury
[ QUOTE ]
lol I love how people who let it ride when the line was at -5/-4.5 talk about how the hedgers gave up EV when the line moved to even hedging when it was -5/-4.5 was much much more +EV than letting it ride at -5/-4.5 was nice suckout fish [/ QUOTE ] Ummmm, if I am Pitt -5, how does hedging with Miami +1 do me any good? I had planned on hedging, but I didn't expect the line change so quickly. To say we were stupid not to hedge once the line changed only shows how ignorant you are.
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#30
09-08-2006, 11:54 AM
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Re: To hedgers: Adding insult to injury
[ QUOTE ]
If the Dolphins won and the Steelers didn't cover than somebody would start a thread about how anyone who didn't hedge was foolish for not hedging. And where is the insult or injury? The hedgers who got their bets in on time make a profit of $400 risk free. [/ QUOTE ] $400 risk free versus risking $400 to win $600. I'll take he effective +150 bet every day, especially when the book odds are -110.
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