NL100: Trips on river, call push?

[HitmanHaydon]

Villain is 15/9/1.7 over 190 hands.

Looks like a split at best as I raised UTG.
All comments welcome.

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $94.80
Hero (UTG): $113.80
UTG+1: $107.70
MP1: $116.90
MP2: $59.20
CO: $100
BTN: $100
SB: $120.15

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $5</font>, 3 folds, CO calls $5, 2 folds, BB calls $4

Flop: ($15.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $11</font>, CO calls $11, BB folds

Turn: ($37.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [ A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $23</font>, Hero calls $23

River: ($83.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [ 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $61 and is All-In</font> Hero?

[The Eureka Kid]

I call this like always. His aggression factor is low, but you have just give him every reason to think AT/AJ is good here by checking both turn and river. 15/9 would mostly 3bet AK in the CO surely? Anywho, you need to be good 30%+, which I think you are.

[BigDan9]

Call and win some, lose some. Totally agree with Eureka that Villain probably isn't fearing a big Ace too much and I think he probably has ATs-AQs often enough too justify the call. AK is clearly possible (I think a lot of players with those stats would flat call, maybe more likely to 3-bet AKs) and I suppose pocket 5s-7s is a slight concern, but that's just the way it is.

One thing I don't like is playing AQo utg, though. I've more or less settled on AQs and better in EP. I just don't think any smaller, offsuit broadway hands are profitable oop (and I think a lot of 2p2ers would agree).

[felixleong]

i think calling is better EV in the long run

good chance for AT to AQ
AK looks very unlikely , since he would probably reraised PF
77 and 55 is quite possible the way he played , that he wants u to pay your stack for holding an Ace

since if u hold Ace u will probably pay all chips
if u hold anything else, u cant call any size of riv bet

[flytrap]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing I don't like is playing AQo utg, though. I've more or less settled on AQs and better in EP. I just don't think any smaller, offsuit broadway hands are profitable oop (and I think a lot of 2p2ers would agree).

[/ QUOTE ]

Although it's not a big deal, I think AQ is definately profitable, and in passive games you can play AJ as well. The game would have to have a lot of good aggressive players before I would open-fold AQ.

[AllTheCheese]

^^When does a 15/9 call a 5BB UTG raise (IMO a little too big) with AT, even suited?

There's really no range a 15/9 can be VBing with that we have odds to call against. If we call, we're just hoping he's turning 88-JJ into a bluff sometimes.

[Mejis]

As played you really can't fold, even when he has nitty stats.

[Chargers In 07]

[ QUOTE ]
^^When does a 15/9 call a 5BB UTG raise (IMO a little too big) with AT, even suited?

[/ QUOTE ]QFT. I play around those stats though more aggro postflop and I'm never showing you a suited ace that I cold called a 5xbb with and I'm mucking AQ (sometimes, but never coldcalling) and reraising AK. My range here is pretty much sets and I'd assume somebody who isn't as aggro has around the same range.

[HitmanHaydon]

[ QUOTE ]
^^When does a 15/9 call a 5BB UTG raise (IMO a little too big) with AT, even suited?

There's really no range a 15/9 can be VBing with that we have odds to call against. If we call, we're just hoping he's turning 88-JJ into a bluff sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was my thinking. Because I'm UTG I think AJ is also unlikely, maybe suited.

BTW the 5x open was just a misclick.

[smw1992]

I think 55 or 77 is likely based on his stats and the way he played this hand. Looks like he knows you have the Ace and he is not concerned. He could have AK but seems less likely given no reraise preflop.

Saying that I would probably call but I'm a donk and tend to pay too much for proof of my reads.