100nl- AKs preflop

[MYNAMEIZGREG]

OK here we go:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

46,232,208 games 0.005 secs 9,246,441,600 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.806% 27.76% 15.05% 12834291 6955696.50 { AsKs }
Hand 1: 57.194% 42.15% 15.05% 19486524 6955696.50 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }


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35,958,384 games 0.047 secs 765,072,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.904% 22.62% 19.28% 8133909 6934104.00 { AsKs }
Hand 1: 58.096% 38.81% 19.28% 13956267 6934104.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }


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This is a generous range IMO since he is UTG and we have a TAG image and we never have noticed the other guy 3bet which means we don't know JJ/AK is even in his range.

30.5 dead money in the pot we have 100 left behind we shove it's our 100 to win the 130.5 pot. 130.5/100 = 1.305

100/2.305 = 43.38% equity which isn't enough vs his generous range

[MYNAMEIZGREG]

Also him being 22/17 means NOTHING in terms of 3betting range, esp vs an UTG TAG raise. But, I'm going out now and I will respond to anything you post tomorrow [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Jay Riall]

You haven't included any FE over hands like TT/AQ (I think he 3bet/folds them fairly often here ). I think this player is nearly always 3betting JJ, AK aswell. Also, we sometimes fold AK (definitely not an insignificant amount of the time) and sometimes QQ (may be an insignificant amount of the time).

Then again I am negating the times when the overcaller wakes up with a hand (or calls with crap I guess).

I think this is pretty close.

[MYNAMEIZGREG]

You CANNOT make assumptions about his 3betting range outside of our reads... which is that we haven't even noticed him 3betting yet, and he has done nothing out of line.

Like you said, although unlikely, the cold caller could have a hand as well. Lastly, in a preflop situation like this, where it purely comes down to the 3bettors range (and I guess the cold callers range, but his stats indicate we can ignore it), we can't really fold sometimes and shove sometimes, because it's AK and shoving will not be a bluff.

I feel like a lot of people that 3bet with more than AK/JJ+ are saying that this is a shove, because they assume villain will have a similar range to them, which may not be the case.

[Unknown Soldier]

pair mining might be good here depends on the donkey

[MYNAMEIZGREG]

Yea, actually I agree with that, only since we are getting good odds, are suited, and only if we won't insta stack off to the 3bettor if we flop a king (I can't see getting away from an ace).

[happyhour456]

i 4bet and call a shove.

[1o BoY]

[ QUOTE ]
Didn't realise detailed reports on villains became standard all of a sudden.

[/ QUOTE ]

Its very uesfull when talking abwt pf plays.