Late stage, KQo with low M in CO after EP-raise?

[Tackleberry]

[ QUOTE ]
[...]I think I'm confused. You'd be getting 1.25:1 if he'd open pushed, but he only raised. After you push and he calls, the pot is around 37K and you put your stack of 16400 (minus antes) in. [...]

[/ QUOTE ]

This is correct. But let´s assume (for clarification purposes), that he insta-call my push. In this case it´s just as if he shoved himself and I just call him. So the result is the same - I have to calculate if paying 16405 into a pot of around 20k (the blinds, his 4,8k + the rest of his stack after my push) legitimate it to get it in or not.

[yNnOs]

I see your rationale, but I'd have to respectfully disagree. If he shoved pre, not only do we have to reevaluate his range, but it really does change your calling range, and prob makes it much tighter. After all, he'd be shoving into six players with a (not completely desperate) M of 6.

[Tackleberry]

[ QUOTE ]
[...] If he shoved pre, not only do we have to reevaluate his range, but it really does change your calling range, and prob makes it much tighter. After all, he'd be shoving into six players.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ths is right again - but we´re speaking about different things. My question simply is - is a shove +EV or -EV? To evaluate this we have to take the implied odds for my move. So let´s take the following assumption as given:

1) His raising-range is definitely 55+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo.

2) He will definitely call my shove.

In this case it is irrelevant for the calculation of my odds if he shoved pre or called my shove. In any case I have to put slightly more than 16400 chips to get a pot of about 20k. This gives me odds of slightly better than 1.2:1.

I admit that these assumptions are not 100% precise but for the rough calculation one can make at the heat of the table I think, it´s sufficient. The outcome would just differ significantly in the case his range is <u>much</u> wider or he would call my shove <u>much</u> tighter.

By thw way: while writing this I get aware that it looks like I want to legitimate my line of which I´m convinced anyway. Please, this is not the case - otherwise I hadn´t posted! I just want to discuss and check my thinking - maybe I´m completely wrong here ...

[yNnOs]

If the ultimate question is whether shoving is +/-EV, then I'd say its certainly +EV. Implied odds aren't a factor here since there isn't anything to gain later in the hand when you're all-in. Also, if you're assuming he'll call, then (in effect) you're putting in 16400 to win 37K. Correct? We're speaking about the same thing, just in different ways.

BTW, I can tell you're open-minded about this discussion. Thanks. =)

[JammyDodga]

[ QUOTE ]
With a low M, theres little to adjust for in terms of players behind. Besides, position means nothing when you're all-in. And if I were in the BB and SB raises, there is no stop and go, instashove. Also shoving if I'm in SB and its folded around.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you read my post???

There's always need to adjust for players behind, a marginal push from button, might becom e-EV from CO... etc.

Here, we are marginal against initial raisers percieved range, and so the fact there are still players to act who could have a decent hand argues more for a fold.

I was talking about position when considering the stop and go, for which it is important, and I was saying that I would do a stop and go in this hand if I was in the blinds, and if we were faicing a raiser in EP.

And if its folded around to you in SB or if its folded to SB who raises and your in BB then sure, push, but those are completely different scenarios and 100% standard with KQ, so I'm not sure why you brought them up.

[Tackleberry]

[ QUOTE ]
[...]Also, if you're assuming he'll call, then (in effect) you're putting in 16400 to win 37K. Correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
1000 SB
+ 2000 BB
+ 2250 Antes
+ 4800 Bet of Villain
+ 11305 Rest (of my stack) which Villain has to bring after my shove
--------
= 21355
========
</pre><hr />

So I have to put in 16105 chips to win 21355. This makes 1.3:1. You can´t add my own stack as I haven´t invested it yet - so I can´t win it. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[yNnOs]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to adjust for the players still to act as well.

If this was the SB or BB, id say this was a great time to stop and go, but being in position on the flop will actually be to you disadvantage.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wasn't sure exactly what you meant which is why I mentioned those other scenarios. I can see a stop-go from there, but its my preference to push here in any case. Also agree that being OOP making this play is a good thing.

[yNnOs]

You're right, I haven't got much sleep. Studies show lack of sleep tends to decrease math skills while increasing language faculties. So I'm a cross between a third-grader and shakespeare right now. =/

[Soulman]

Didn't read the rest of the responses, fold since you have no FE and his UTG+1 raising range has KQo pretty much crushed. Even if he raises fairly wide (like 55+,A9s+,KJs+,JTs,ATo+,KQo), you're not getting good enough odds. Assuming he won't fold to your reraise, you need 1.6:1 to make a shove profitable, whereas you're offered only 1.24:1. Throwing in a small amount of FE somewhat changes things, but on average I'd fold here.

[sapsuckah]

Soulman's got it. You're almost never ahead here and will always get called. Easy fold.