bubble live tourney

[JKratzer]

i'm a cash game player but i played at a live tourney my local casino held last night. it was $100+15, 100 person event (ended up being 107 w/ alternates). final table paid. we got down to 11 people on 2 tables and this hand came up.

we're at hand-for-hand play. i'm chip leader (at my table at least) and decide to start stealing blinds 'cause no one wants to be 11th. blinds 1500/3k. i steal for a little while then make i make it 6k with 88 in MP (standard raise which had been taking it down). folds to bb who pushes for 29k more. he hadn't been at the table long but i felt like he didn't have a big pair. no other read really, if i call and lose i'll have 21k left, which would be slightly below the average of ~25k.

i have no idea if this is super easy one way or the other, if it is super obvious i'd appreciate a quick explanation, i don't play tourneys often.

thanks

[whynot?]

if you're running over the table, i fold this and pick up the blinds as you go - you only need your steals to work 2 out of 3 times to be ahead of the game - fold and retain your dominant position

can't do it again in the near future or you'll look vulnerable tho. with blinds this high though be very careful of the short stacks who cant afford to fold their blinds - push into the vulnerable middle stacks who are waiting for the little guys to bust

[umistboy]

I'd fold.

At best you will be in a race really (without reads on him being looser) but more than likely dominated.

A fold leaves you double the average chip stack which can begin to pick off players and chips at FT when those samll stacks have cashed.

Just accept that you may have best hand but have been stealing and back off.

[holdemft]

Has BB been at the table long enough to see you steal blinds and act as the table captain? If so, He could just be blind defending thinking you're on a steal, in which case he can make this move with any two cards, but most likely he's doing it with a hand that has some value, AK-A8, all paint, and even some suited connecters. Your dominated by 99-AA, and a coinflip to two overcards, but against suited connectors or an over/under, you're in real good shape.

Its important to defend your blinds, and he may think this is a good position to do that.

Its also important to know a couple things. a)If you fold, the next time you raise and someone pushes all in, what are you going to do? If you have a weaker hand at that time and fold, the table will learn that raises have no value and they can easily push back on you to get you to fold out. You'll make it alot harder on yourself to steal. b)If you call and lose, you still have a good amount of chips, and the image that you're raising with good hands and you're not afraid to call a push. You can steal more blinds and get yourself back in good shape. If you call and win, you're in great shape to go deep into the FT, and even win, which is what it's all about.

I don't think its a supereasy call or a supereasy fold. I can see an argument for folding too. you have to put 29K into a pot of 39.5 for about 1.3-1 odds(you really want 1.5 or higher to call this) So you're not getting the right odds to call. I think you should have raised to 12K PF, you would have been getting the right odds to call, plus a 2X raise just looks weak. It may have been working at the table against the current set of players, but maybe this guy sees it as weakness.

Tough choice, but I like a call here.

[Sherman]

Yep. If you have been stealing regularly, you actually don't want the bubble to burst. You just want to keep picking up pots. It seems like your table has been waiting to pick up a big hand against you. Well, here it is. Fold this one and keep stealing.

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]
Yep. If you have been stealing regularly, you actually don't want the bubble to burst. You just want to keep picking up pots. It seems like your table has been waiting to pick up a big hand against you. Well, here it is. Fold this one and keep stealing.

[/ QUOTE ]


While this call is probably slightly +ev it is more +EV (and less variance) to preserve the bubble. At a 6 handed live table there will be many stealing opportunities for the big stack; exploit those opportunities

[Bob Loblaw]

Is there an ante? looks like a call to me, unless the bubble was playing very tight.

[registrar]

This would be kind of close online, and probably a call, but players are generally tigher live and without a read I could fold this quite comfortably.