*** OFFICIAL 10/21/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***

[aufan91]

I've been betting NE every game this year as a "project" so it's worked well so far.

NE -17
Washington -7
Tampa Bay +2
Indianapolis -3

[kdog]

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thinking maybe the no/ atl game. gotta think about that one

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Well I guess your thoughts are different than mine because I think this line is really inflated. NO has won one game this year(and Seattle really lost that more than NO won)and now they lay 8? On what basis, last weeks Sun & Mon night games? I'll be on the Falcons.

[kdog]

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I've been betting NE every game this year as a "project" so it's worked well so far.



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It's worked VERY well so far [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] This week I don't know though. To me it looks too easy which raises a huge red flag. I can see NE being as unmotivated for this game as they were against Cleveland(miracle cover there). If that's the case 17 (you can get 16-16.5 now)is too many.

[Vagos]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
thinking maybe the no/ atl game. gotta think about that one

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I guess your thoughts are different than mine because I think this line is really inflated. NO has won one game this year(and Seattle really lost that more than NO won)and now they lay 8? On what basis, last weeks Sun & Mon night games? I'll be on the Falcons.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oddsmakers consider more than just records. Frankly, the Saints are much better than a 1-4 team and they showed it last Sunday night, getting an impressive win on the road in one of the toughest places to play. It's not like the Saints are a vastly different team from last year, they just had a lot to figure out schematically. The important thing I saw last week was Drew Brees had A LOT of time in the pocket and ta da! He looked like '06 Brees. It's not like Drew Brees just got bad over the off-season, it was the pieces around him not getting off on the right foot. When he has time in the pocket, he's a very accurate passer. Also, they played Lance Moore and David Patten more at WR, as Deverey Henderson continues to drop balls that Brees puts right on the money while Patten showed he can be a reliable possession receiver.

On the other side of the field, the Falcons can't do anything right on defense. They have a modestly talented secondary but nowhere near enough pieces up front to stop the run of get to the passer. And Byron Leftwich is not going to be an upgrade from Joey Harrington. Warrick Dunn has been dreadful but Norwood has shown to be terrible in pass blocking to be an everydown back.

This line is right where it should be IMO, and I think I like Saints -8.5.

[mogwai316]

It's sounding more and more like Warner is going to start despite his injury. I picked up WAS -325 earlier in the week when the line was just beginning to move. I'm not sure whether I should stick with it or just take the arb with ARI +340 or so. I expect the line to move back a bit over the next day.

[KingOfSwords]

Help a Noob Week 7

In my suicide pool, I've narrowed it down to

At Washington -8 Arizona

At New Orleans -8 Atlanta

At Seattle -8.5 St. Louis

At NY Giants -9 San Francisco

I have already used New England, Denver, Baltimore, Dallas, Tenn., San Diego if that matters to you.

Who would you go with out of the ones I've selected?

[agencia1]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
thinking maybe the no/ atl game. gotta think about that one

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I guess your thoughts are different than mine because I think this line is really inflated. NO has won one game this year(and Seattle really lost that more than NO won)and now they lay 8? On what basis, last weeks Sun & Mon night games? I'll be on the Falcons.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oddsmakers consider more than just records. Frankly, the Saints are much better than a 1-4 team and they showed it last Sunday night, getting an impressive win on the road in one of the toughest places to play. It's not like the Saints are a vastly different team from last year, they just had a lot to figure out schematically. The important thing I saw last week was Drew Brees had A LOT of time in the pocket and ta da! He looked like '06 Brees. It's not like Drew Brees just got bad over the off-season, it was the pieces around him not getting off on the right foot. When he has time in the pocket, he's a very accurate passer. Also, they played Lance Moore and David Patten more at WR, as Deverey Henderson continues to drop balls that Brees puts right on the money while Patten showed he can be a reliable possession receiver.

On the other side of the field, the Falcons can't do anything right on defense. They have a modestly talented secondary but nowhere near enough pieces up front to stop the run of get to the passer. And Byron Leftwich is not going to be an upgrade from Joey Harrington. Warrick Dunn has been dreadful but Norwood has shown to be terrible in pass blocking to be an everydown back.

This line is right where it should be IMO, and I think I like Saints -8.5.

[/ QUOTE ]

u can get -8 on sprtbk. wot yre saying is more or less what i thought also. either way these r v small edge bets. i feel good bout no/atl but think i couldve held off on balt and their under

[zOrO2k6]

NFL Underdogs Week 7

-JC

[RichGangi]

bump

[mogwai316]

Early game picks:

Washington -325
Buffalo +3 -105
Miami +17 -110
various pieces of Wong teaser bets (TB, NO, Wash)