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#1
07-10-2007, 02:35 PM
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What are the odds a player in top 50 in chips at WSOP wins?
All have over 150k chips, about 13-15% of chips in play, what odds would you make someone in top 50 winning? 8-1? 12-1?
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#2
07-10-2007, 02:55 PM
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Re: What are the odds a player in top 50 in chips at WSOP wins?
I thought you were cracked, and I was thinking 500-1. Then I realized you meant any of the top 50, not the odds for one particular person. So I guess 10-1 sounds about right.
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#3
07-10-2007, 03:10 PM
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Re: What are the odds a player in top 50 in chips at WSOP wins?
I'd go closer to 12-1. The top chip counts tend to play less than optimal poker to get where they are in a lot of cases.
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#4
07-10-2007, 03:13 PM
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Re: What are the odds a player in top 50 in chips at WSOP wins?
[ QUOTE ]
I'd go closer to 12-1. The top chip counts tend to play less than optimal poker to get where they are in a lot of cases. [/ QUOTE ] It's worth remembering that both Raymer and Gold had the chip lead very early in their winning years.
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#5
07-10-2007, 03:14 PM
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Re: What are the odds a player in top 50 in chips at WSOP wins?
Yes, but if they have 14% of chips in play, acting like they are so bad they have 8% odds may be a large overreaction, odds-wise.
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#6
07-10-2007, 03:14 PM
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Re: What are the odds a player in top 50 in chips at WSOP wins?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'd go closer to 12-1. The top chip counts tend to play less than optimal poker to get where they are in a lot of cases. [/ QUOTE ] It's worth remembering that both Raymer and Gold had the chip lead very early in their winning years. [/ QUOTE ] And Stuey was bigstack like the whole tourney.
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#7
07-10-2007, 03:29 PM
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Re: What are the odds a player in top 50 in chips at WSOP wins?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'd go closer to 12-1. The top chip counts tend to play less than optimal poker to get where they are in a lot of cases. [/ QUOTE ] It's worth remembering that both Raymer and Gold had the chip lead very early in their winning years. [/ QUOTE ] Murphy? Nobles? I believe they were C/Ls.
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#8
07-10-2007, 03:44 PM
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Re: What are the odds a player in top 50 in chips at WSOP wins?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'd go closer to 12-1. The top chip counts tend to play less than optimal poker to get where they are in a lot of cases. [/ QUOTE ] It's worth remembering that both Raymer and Gold had the chip lead very early in their winning years. [/ QUOTE ] Being a big stack creates so many +EV opportunities that clueful (Raymer) and/or aggressive players (even lagtards like Gold) have a quite significant incremental advantage. This effect may roughly offset the random luckbox donks who will crash and burn. Who knows.
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#10
07-10-2007, 03:49 PM
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Re: What are the odds a player in top 50 in chips at WSOP wins?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'd go closer to 12-1. The top chip counts tend to play less than optimal poker to get where they are in a lot of cases. [/ QUOTE ] It's worth remembering that both Raymer and Gold had the chip lead very early in their winning years. [/ QUOTE ] "Very early" meaning about 2 or 3 days before the FT, iirc. We're still 7 days from FT.
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