Heis vs Efficacy 2

[frenchpignouf]

Efficacy (OTB) posted this hand yesterday about his river play. Heisenberg is BB and his line for the turn and the river is interesting imo. Usually I c/r the turn without think about it, but calling has some merits for sure.

PokerStars $5/$10 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
Hand Converter Tool from DeucesCracked.com

Preflop: BB has Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, BTN raises, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.40 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, BTN bets, BB calls.

Turn: (3.20 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img](2 players)
BB checks, BTN bets, BB calls.

River: (5.20 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets,

[istewart]

Lots of backdoors Heis could've picked up on the turn. A CR should get called down relatively lightly, I would think.

[johnnyrocket]

[ QUOTE ]
Lots of backdoors Heis could've picked up on the turn. A CR should get called down relatively lightly, I would think.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea i think he is losing value by not c/r'ing this turn and leading river, if the board were stronger or less drawy i would advocate this play to induce bluffs and throw off a regular.

[londomollari]

Is this flop peel standard in a blind defense situation? Are we check-raise bluffing the turn some % of the time. I could see check-raising the flop or peeling if we had a backdoor draw.

[xerber]

I also don´t understand the flop peel.

Assuming ATSB is about 45%:

492,030 games 0.015 secs 32,802,000 games/sec

Board: 2s Jd 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.114% 24.92% 01.19% 122632 5859.00 { Qc8d }
Hand 1: 73.886% 72.69% 01.19% 357680 5859.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q7s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }

Looks to me like a fold.

[Oink]

Implied odds and free cards

Besides. Your range seems a bit tight. But efficacy knows that better than me

[NinaWilliams]

[ QUOTE ]
I also don´t understand the flop peel.

Assuming ATSB is about 45%:

492,030 games 0.015 secs 32,802,000 games/sec

Board: 2s Jd 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.114% 24.92% 01.19% 122632 5859.00 { Qc8d }
Hand 1: 73.886% 72.69% 01.19% 357680 5859.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q7s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }

Looks to me like a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Flop peel is ok if villain checks behind a lot because we realize our equity more often. I agree that its thin because of the lack of backdoor draws.

[Apanage]

[ QUOTE ]
I also don´t understand the flop peel.

Assuming ATSB is about 45%:

492,030 games 0.015 secs 32,802,000 games/sec

Board: 2s Jd 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.114% 24.92% 01.19% 122632 5859.00 { Qc8d }
Hand 1: 73.886% 72.69% 01.19% 357680 5859.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q7s+, J7s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, A2o+, K5o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }

Looks to me like a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.I have never understood these peels OOP even when you have a backdoor flush draw since that only add about 2-3 percentage points to your equity.
I have no doubt they are correct since so many better players than me are doing them.

So I have two questions:

1.Don´t you really have to intend to steal the pot later on some percentage of the time in order to make this flop peel profitable.
2.Have somebody done any rough calculations in terms of bets made or lost of the outcome of different turn cards .To me it seems that whatever equity
we have on flop it is not easy to trade it for the corresponding amount of bets.
Someone surely must have given this some thought and have some very rough calculations.

[Oink]

A basic point

- If villain c-bets turn 100% heros implied from hitting a pair are pretty good.

EDIT:
- If villain c-bets 100% hero will have a profitable semibluff on a lot of turns

- If villain doesnt c-bet 100% hero will have worse implied but often paying 1 bet in a 5 bet pot and see two cards with 6 outs.


I on the other hand cant see why anyone would wanna fold that flop

We still play to win money, right?

[Heisenb3rg]

I dont want to reveal too much about my thought process vs regulars, so ill be cryptic for fun.

The reason I didnt c/r the turn, is the reason I peeled the flop.

Its also a play I use to "mix it up", so my river range isn't totally polarized to monsters/weakies.