JJ river play

[inferno]

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i think river is a b/c

but is the turn a clear 3-bet? it feels close to me.

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[Apanage]

Bet/folding is horrible in theory.At the poker table it is maybe the best option after all.But I´m not totally convinced.
After 3-betting turn your hand is face up. You have 66-AA and maybe some xdxd hands.If you bet/fold here a thinking villain will Valuebluff raise you all day long.He is getting 12.75:1 putting in the raise if he already intends to call you.And he is getting great odds to raise even if he doesn´t intend to call.Not that I give many villains credit for having the guts or the brain to do it and that often includes myself.
But there is also villains that don´t have brains which raise this river for different reasons and accidentally makes a good play.
Generally speaking I don´t like bet/folding rivers unless our opponent is really predictable or loose passive.
Because if they are we have a player that is stupid enough to call with less than JJ and can at the same time find a relatively safe fold to a raise.
By check/calling we are getting value owned but we see a showdown and occassionally we induce a stupid bluff or a light value bet.

[mjkidd]

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Bet/folding is horrible in theory.At the poker table it is maybe the best option after all.But I´m not totally convinced.
After 3-betting turn your hand is face up. You have 66-AA and maybe some xdxd hands.If you bet/fold here a thinking villain will Valuebluff raise you all day long.He is getting 12.75:1 putting in the raise if he already intends to call you.And he is getting great odds to raise even if he doesn´t intend to call.Not that I give many villains credit for having the guts or the brain to do it and that often includes myself.
But there is also villains that don´t have brains which raise this river for different reasons and accidentally makes a good play.
Generally speaking I don´t like bet/folding rivers unless our opponent is really predictable or loose passive.
Because if they are we have a player that is stupid enough to call with less than JJ and can at the same time find a relatively safe fold to a raise.
By check/calling we are getting value owned but we see a showdown and occassionally we induce a stupid bluff or a light value bet.

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Obviously bet/fold is exploitable. But so is check/call and bet/call and check/fold, if we always do it in this spot. Just because we bet/fold here doesn't mean we have to always bet/fold in this spot. Anyway, I don't think bet/call is bad here at all, and is def. better than check/call here.

[Apanage]

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Obviously bet/fold is exploitable. But so is check/call and bet/call and check/fold, if we always do it in this spot.

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Every action is exploitable.But if villain would play his hand perfectly bet/folding and check/folding is by far the most costly ones.
If villain plays perfectly he knows that your range is 66-AA.He knows that you´re going to bet/fold river with all non-set hands.I don´t expect anyone to play perfectly but if he does it is a 5/9th pot mistake.

[mjkidd]

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Obviously bet/fold is exploitable. But so is check/call and bet/call and check/fold, if we always do it in this spot.

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Every action is exploitable.But if villain would play his hand perfectly bet/folding and check/folding is by far the most costly ones.
If villain plays perfectly he knows that your range is 66-AA.He knows that you´re going to bet/fold river with all non-set hands.I don´t expect anyone to play perfectly but if he does it is a 5/9th pot mistake.

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Villain is unknown, presumably so are we. Theres no way he knows that we're going to bet/fold JJ here. Do you really expect an unknown to bet/fold JJ in this spot?

[Apanage]

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Obviously bet/fold is exploitable. But so is check/call and bet/call and check/fold, if we always do it in this spot.

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Every action is exploitable.But if villain would play his hand perfectly bet/folding and check/folding is by far the most costly ones.
If villain plays perfectly he knows that your range is 66-AA.He knows that you´re going to bet/fold river with all non-set hands.I don´t expect anyone to play perfectly but if he does it is a 5/9th pot mistake.

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Villain is unknown, presumably so are we. Theres no way he knows that we're going to bet/fold JJ here. Do you really expect an unknown to bet/fold JJ in this spot?

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As previously stated it is a huge mistake to bet/fold only if villain plays perfectly. But rememeber that you lose 7 BB or something if he plays perfectly and as also already stated many players don´t expect anything since their head is under their arm "Wow an ace I´m going to bluff him".

I have no clue of what villain thinks and that´s why I would like to make the move that costs the least if he doesn´t think or if he is really sharp.

However I´ll admit that I´m a little bit puzzled now when you told me that we really can´t expect villain to bluffraise this river.
It makes your earlier proposal to bet/call seem a little bit strange.

[mjkidd]

Huh? I didn't say villain will never bluffraise the river. I just don't think an unknown will do it often enough to make bet/call the best play.

[mynameisslime]

bet call

[Apanage]

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Huh? I didn't say villain will never bluffraise the river. I just don't think an unknown will do it often enough to make bet/call the best play.

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I just pointed out the fact that it is a paradox to think that bet/calling is the best play and at the same time not think that bet/folding is the by far worst play.

[TheHip41]

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i think river is a b/f, as others said.

but is the turn a clear 3-bet? it feels close to me.

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with no reads, I think it's bad.

The guy can easily have AA-QQ here, and all we really beat is a hand like A8s, or two big diamonds.