PLO8 $200: Ugly river card

[MattS]

This is villain's first hand at the table. No reads.

GAME: Omaha Hi-Lo PL $1.00/$2.00

Seat 3: Hero ($920.44 in chips) DEALER
Seat 4: kittycall ($633.45 in chips)
Seat 5: oaky2120 ($200.00 in chips)

kittycall: Post SB $1.00
oaky2120: Post BB $2.00

Dealt to Hero [[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6]

Hero: Raise $7.00
kittycall: Call $6.00
oaky2120: Call $5.00

*** FLOP *** [[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7]

kittycall: Check
oaky2120: Check
Hero: Bet $21.00
kittycall: Fold
oaky2120: Call $21.00

*** TURN *** [[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8]

oaky2120: Check
Hero: Bet $63.00
oaky2120: Call $63.00

*** RIVER *** [[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2]

oaky2120: Allin $109.00
Hero: ???

[rando]

The passivity before the river suggests he could have A3 with something (wheel or good pair?). But man that river is a nuclear bomb. If I had to guess, villain either has A3 + higher card to pair the board or A4 and an overpair. But it's the prototypical spot where you try and bluff the other guy off the other end (i.e. A with a 3 or even a 4 and nothing else thinking your low is shot), and he's caught you with the prospects of making a call that can't feel at all good. I think my leaning here would be calling on the end, because I doubt he has A3 plus something that beats bottom two. Guessing you get quartered slightly less than half as often as you chop, with the freak scoop of something like KK34 with spades or some other wacky river semi-bluff attempting to steal something having just sat down.

[Dismas]

I think as played you have to call. You put ~50% of the effective stack in and you’re getting 2.7 to 1 odds.

Does anyone check behind on the turn or bet less considering the stack sizes? I don’t whish to sound results oriented because I think I make that turn bet also but if the stack sizes were larger this would be an easier decision.

[prodonkey]

I call here almost every time.. A3 doesn't make a wheel, so your 2 pair is going to be good for the high a lot.

[GaZaZaZa]

Close your eyes, say your prays, throw up and press that call button... but you cant fold this without ANY reads on your opponent...also this would be good for future info...does he bluff with naked low draws and the like.....GOD this game can be a bitch sometimes

[golfnutt]

[ QUOTE ]
GOD this game can be a bitch sometimes

[/ QUOTE ]

Y.E.S.

[brian64]

I think you get scooped or quartered a lot, but he's only betting around 60% of the pot so I don't see how you can fold. I'd love to know the result of this.