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  #11  
Old 11-20-2007, 08:33 AM
tippy tippy is offline
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Default Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar

Ok, we got the EUR/USD breakout to the upside. Sold my 3 lots for +125 pips each, +375 pips profit total.

Flipped to 3 long dollar lots at 1.4775. Laddering in for a total position of 10 lots.

Looks like an exaggerated move on rumor. Downside looks to be contained around 1.50. At that point, I think we definitely see central bank intervention. Should be a good risk/reward position.
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  #12  
Old 12-01-2007, 11:00 AM
tippy tippy is offline
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Default Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar

Ok, looks like the 1.50 level held. Time for some profit.

Looking like the dollar may come back and test the 1.45 level. I lightened up a little on Friday afternoon, but still got 6 lots.

Also, looking to get in on the AUD/JPY pair if it drops back toward 96.00. Anyone got any advice on this pair? I'm not really familiar with it, but I've been researching it this week. If the dollar starts weakening substantially, commodities should benefit. Commodity stocks have looked pretty strong this week. Even if US slows, commodities should still be in demand worldwide. Interest rates in Aus don't look to be coming down anytime soon.
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  #13  
Old 12-01-2007, 11:15 AM
The once and future king The once and future king is offline
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Default Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar

One thing to consider in the context of the Euro is that the member states are all entering very different stages in the business cycle, have rapidly diverging domestic economic conditions especially as regards inflation and yet the Euro CB must adopt a monetary policy that keeps all member states happy.

What makes the Euro different to other currencies is that it is much much more vulnerable to political collapse than other currencies because it is a political creation. How you price this is into trades and positions I am uncertain, but my instinct is that the risks I have mentioned above are not in general fully accounted for in currency markets.
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  #14  
Old 12-01-2007, 04:16 PM
Tweety Tweety is offline
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Default Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar

[ QUOTE ]
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Might as well give this trade another run. EUR/USD looks to have formed a double top here. 5 lots from 1.4670.

Looking for the Yen to run tomorrow with US Equities falling hard.

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if anything brings down the eur/usd it will be some political intervention, not a double top.

there may be some retracements but i think you're crazy to go long the dollar versus anything.

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nah, relative interest rate diffs w/ the developing world can definitely converge, increasing demand for the dollar relative to EUR or GBP.

personally, i think the GBP is a better long since the UK economy is very unstable and highly dependent upon record credit driven domestic consumption...further that is based on huuuuuuuuuuuge housing price increases. these are unsustainable and, when the sh*t hits the fan, mervin king will not hold off pulling the trigger on lower rates like he did injecting liquidity into the system or to help save northern rock. he will move rates down more than the US will since the inflation picture is better in the UK than US.

therefore, the USD will increase in value relative to the pound, probably to 1.85 or so.

it is not crazy to go long the dollar vs. anything just because you know the dollar is a weak fundamental currency overall.

that isn't good trading logic at all.
Barron

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i'm short GBP/CAD because i agree with your assessment. I just think the USD is far from the optimal currency to be long.

As for the EUR, im short EUR/CHF... not that much though. Most of my long CHF comes from the USD. Overall my portfolio is almost all short the USD though, and has been for a while. Having the dollar long as part of your portfolio is at best a sacrifice of optimality and at worse a disaster IMO.

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Short eurchf has been a debacle position the past few days.

What sort of time horizon do you have? What are your profit and s/l levels in eurchf?
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  #15  
Old 12-01-2007, 04:20 PM
Tweety Tweety is offline
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Join Date: May 2007
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Default Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, looks like the 1.50 level held. Time for some profit.

Looking like the dollar may come back and test the 1.45 level. I lightened up a little on Friday afternoon, but still got 6 lots.

Also, looking to get in on the AUD/JPY pair if it drops back toward 96.00. Anyone got any advice on this pair? I'm not really familiar with it, but I've been researching it this week. If the dollar starts weakening substantially, commodities should benefit. Commodity stocks have looked pretty strong this week. Even if US slows, commodities should still be in demand worldwide. Interest rates in Aus don't look to be coming down anytime soon.

[/ QUOTE ]

AUDJPY is a classic carry trade whose interday movements are determined almost entirely by the level of risk aversion in the investor community. If you think global equity markets in for some more rough times, do not buy AUDJPY.
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  #16  
Old 12-01-2007, 07:31 PM
dj_mercury dj_mercury is offline
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Posts: 56
Default Re: Back to the well once more...long dollar

US_Dollar: What to Expect
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