NL200 - 2.5 stacks deep w/mid set. Bet size?

[happyjaypee]

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $72.00
BB: $216.05
UTG: $90.20
Vilain (CO): $513.95
Hero (BTN): $489.90

Reads:
<font color="blue">Vilain is a bad lag at 45/30/2.8 whit a WTSD of 42% over only 100 hands. I have'nt tangle whit him so far. He got is stack by bluffing/semi-bluffing big and hitting draw and getting lucky.

Table dynamic: other are starting to play back very light at him.</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt T T (5 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Vilain raises to $7.00</font>, Hero calls $7.00, SB calls $6.00, BB calls $5.00

Flop: ($28) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="red">Vilain bets $24.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $100.00</font>, 2 folds, Vilain <font color="blue">calls time, then</font> calls $76.00

Turn: ($228) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 (2 Players)
Vilain checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $???</font>


On the flop, I want to play a big pot whit him, if he fold to the pot size raise, so be it. Also want to charge big for possible draws behind me. thoughts?

Now I got 382$ left in a 228$ pot. I think is range is something like: AK, almost any Fdraws, maybe QJ, sets. I think he might have come over the top on the flop whit big draws like QJss and AKss, AQss, AJss, KQss. So Fdraws are probably more in the line of Axss then combo draws.

What's the bet size that will get the most out of draws AND AK? pls include plan for river if blank/spade hit.


Thanks

-Happy [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[docnuclear]

It depends how large a mistake he's ready to make with a draw or TPTK. Depends also on your ability to fold on the river with a pot over 400 and less than a PSB left.
Personnaly I bet/call 160 and never fold river.

[Veron]

160 on the turn would be my choice.

Why did you decide to flatcall preflop instead of 3betting?

[Sirasoni]

I would've bet something like 150, with plans to get it in on a blank river obviously.

I would also put it in on a spade river if he checked to me, since I think he might front bet ai with a made flush, though of course I could be wrong :P. If he does go ai on the spade flush complete, it'd be hard, and I'd probably call it simply because of stack sizes at that point. Though I think I usually lose in this spot so..

[happyjaypee]

[ QUOTE ]
Why did you decide to flatcall preflop instead of 3betting?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he was very aggro when someone showed weakness. I knew that if I c-bet flop whit any over card present and he called me, I would have to chk back turn for pot control and likely face a PSB on river form a lot of hands while I might be good. Also did'nt went to let him 4bet PF.

[olof86]

villian is a badish lag and got a pfr of 30%, and u choose not to 3bet pre? wow.

as played bet 135 and shove any river.

[HoldEmNewby]

i'd try to get it in over 2 streets $150 on the turn into a 228 pot, then push $232 into a $528 pot.

[HoldEmNewby]

i'd prefer to 3bet preflop as well.

[Veron]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why did you decide to flatcall preflop instead of 3betting?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he was very aggro when someone showed weakness. I knew that if I c-bet flop whit any over card present and he called me, I would have to chk back turn for pot control and likely face a PSB on river form a lot of hands while I might be good. Also did'nt went to let him 4bet PF.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you based this decision too much on avoiding possible hard decision postflop.

Against this particular opponent you have to 3bet for value. You're way ahead of his opening range AND you're ahead of his calling range when you 3bet --&gt; $$

You could be faced with a tough decision postflop when villain plays back at you and the board gets ugly, but you get those situations aswell when you flatcall, only with less money in the pot.

3Bet for value and play well postflop will make you a lot of money against this player.

[happyjaypee]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why did you decide to flatcall preflop instead of 3betting?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because he was very aggro when someone showed weakness. I knew that if I c-bet flop whit any over card present and he called me, I would have to chk back turn for pot control and likely face a PSB on river form a lot of hands while I might be good. Also did'nt went to let him 4bet PF.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you based this decision too much on avoiding possible hard decision postflop.

Against this particular opponent you have to 3bet for value. You're way ahead of his opening range AND you're ahead of his calling range when you 3bet --&gt; $$

You could be faced with a tough decision postflop when villain plays back at you and the board gets ugly, but you get those situations aswell when you flatcall, only with less money in the pot.

3Bet for value and play well postflop will make you a lot of money against this player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, your probably right...

I just was'nt ready to build a big PF pot whit close to no folding equity on all street whit deep stack, knowing I'll have to produce the best hand most of the time whit just T's.