Here is a great idea on how to beat bookies

[trixtrix]

obv this method is +ev and profitable. the prob is that it is useless to 99% of us who don't have access to a local bookie who's dumber than mud..

as others have mentioned, this idea is simply a fundamental derivative of the school of line-shopping.

assume this method is freely available, you can likely achieve a more optimal return w/ far less volatility by by taking the -130 side at -110 w/ a local, and selling back the other side +120 on pinny and scalp the 10 cent arb.

of course, if it was that easy everyone would be doing it. not too many of us can find a local w/ a high credit rating who's willing to sell you something worth 130 at 110. which is why everyone is pshawing at your idea..

[hedgie43]

Trix,

Wouldn't it be better to assume Pinny is efficient, find the no-vig line and bet Kelly based on that?

[Thremp]

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Trix,

Wouldn't it be better to assume Pinny is efficient, find the no-vig line and bet Kelly based on that?

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on bankroll.

[hedgie43]

Well surely if your bankroll is small then you would bet Kelly and arb the remainder?

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
Well surely if your bankroll is small then you would bet Kelly and arb the remainder?

[/ QUOTE ]

yes, but the kelly stake also decreases depending on the size of the arb IIRC

[romanwarrior]

Update, bet Seattle -3 (-110) with the local bookie, bet 700 and won, online it was at -3 -130

[sonneti]

There was a bookie in Belfast a few years ago that just started covering bets from the NFL. They didnt really understand the idea of a point spread so if a team was -16.5 -110 they would just write -110 on the board. It took them a full NFL season before they realised they was doing it wrong!

[MicroBob]

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find a local w/ a high credit rating

[/ QUOTE ]


yeah.
if you are beating him THAT regularly then I would not be delaying any settle-ups with him.
Bookies this dumb are pretty likely to get killed. And bookies who were this likely to get killed probably don't have that high a credit rating. And bookies who lack such a credit rating may get themselves into too deep a debt and end up not paying/running.

Yeah, you can have your money taken from you online as well.
But a bookie who makes lines that are this bad have to be more likely of running on you I would think...even those who you believe are reputable in spite of their stupidity.

[brendanb438]

OP you are tarded. Really tarded. Even if your local is giving you slightly better vigs than online sites this just means you save on juice, how in the fccuk are you crushing a bookie just because you are getting reduced juice?

Anyway Seattle -3 was available on MB for -108 early sunday morning. I was on it there. So your local ain't got shiat on MB.

[brendanb438]

Also I feel dumb reading more of your post but you compare to Bodog? Are you fccuking trolling us or something? Bodog's juice is about as bad as it comes online. Try comparing to one of the top 20 sites, not Bodog.