Pot control or protection? Discuss this texture

[Genz]

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Disclaimer: You're a much better player than I am.

That said, are you sure you want to avoid a big pot here? First off, your read seems weak, so basing your play too much on it doesn't sound solid. Secondly, if Villain has you beat and you check one street, he'll probably use the other two streets to get ai or close to it. So (usually) the only way you avoid playing a big pot if you're beat is to fold at some point. If you fold to his first bet after checking the flop, I think you get bet off the best hand often. If you call one bet but fold to a push, you'll be folding getting 2:1 odds, and I'm not sure your read is solid enough to make that +EV.

IMO, this is a spot where you'll be unhappy to get all in but you should still be willing to do it (because the alternative lines are worse). So I see 3 possible routes:

1) Bet flop and commit the rest of your chips on a future round no matter what.

2) Check flop and bet turn, bet river no matter what comes (unless Villain bets or raises, in which case you call).

3) Check flop and get it all in when the turn card is safe, check/folding if it's dangerous.

Given the (weak) read on Villain, I think I kind of like #3, but I'm not too sure on that. I just don't like folding without a bad turn card, given pot and stack sizes.

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Don't jump to conclusions because I have more posts than you [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I like what you wrote a lot. Sums up the problems pretty nicely. From my starting point, I favor a line like #3 myself, while I'd be hoping that I might bet the turn for a free SD. When I pet in position on a safe turn and villain calls, I don't have to bet the river if he checks to me.

[danny8]

Genz,

the bottom line is you cant fold this hand on this board to this player in this pot. the pot is too big, your 50/50 vs his legitimate calling/shoving range, foldings a big mistake. add in the times he does something mental or called you a little lighter pf and you have an obvious +EV situation betting the flop and gettin ai.

you should check sometimes just to mix up your play. checking is still +EV, but i dont htink its as good a play as cbetting. if this wasnt a 3bet pot or stacks were deeper then ithink we could have a better discussion, but as is its a pretty simple hand with very little room for manoeuvring

[Smilin']

The more I think about this, the more I like check flop, commit on a safe turn. Reasons:

1) If you check flop and a scare card comes, the chances that you were beat already on flop + chance you were outdrawn + Reverse Implied Odds if you are still ahead make it a fold. A solid fold, I think.

2) Suppose you bet flop and are called, then a scare card comes on the turn. That puts you in a crappy spot. I guess I fold if Villain donks the turn all in (despite pot odds), knowing a bluff is possible but unlikely. If Villain checks turn and you check behind, I have no idea what to do if he pushes river--calling and folding both suck.

[Unknown Soldier]

you don't want to be controlling the pot here, you want to be building a big one. You arent folding anywhere

[NL Newbie]

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Game is 20NL 6Max.
Villain has $21.67 and is sitting UTG
Hero covers and is sitting in MP

Hero is dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Preflop:
Villain opens with a raise to $1, Hero reraises to $3.10, it's folded around, Villain calls.

Flop: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Villain checks, Hero???


Why is this flop the right one to check and get closer to showdown? Or why is it the wrong one?

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Not read other replys.

We should bet here, for value and protection.

Range:22-QQ, AQs, AKo/AKs.
Value: AK
Protection: QQ/TT - 12% a card(T or Q) hits and we go behind/scare him away/have a tough time.


Since TT/QQ almost always fold our hand won't be getting much value even when we check the flop.

So bet, fold out the gutshots and bet/fold turn.

If AK raises us here it makes it alot tougher to play.

[netstorm]

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Range:22-QQ, AQs, AKo/AKs.


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he is 17/7 and UTG... How can you put him on such a loose range?!

[Smilin']

Here's a question (assuming read is over a reliable sample size): If this kind of Villain has AK, is he more likely to get all in if we bet flop/check turn/bet river, if we check flop/bet turn/bet river, or if we bet flop/bet turn/nothing left for river? (It's possible that AK is more likely to get all in in the last scenario because a scare card--for him--could come on the river.)

Similarly, is QQ more likely to put one bet in if we bet flop, or if we check flop and bet turn?

I don't know the answers, but I think those are very relevant questions. I also often find that I'm wondering whether bet flop/check turn or check flop/bet turn looks weaker when I'm holding a marginal hand that wants to extract from worse, so I'm very interested in the answers.

[Smilin']

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So bet, fold out the gutshots and bet/fold turn.

If AK raises us here it makes it alot tougher to play.

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Notice pot and stack sizes--no room to bet/fold turn. I'm not sure there's even room to bet/fold flop.

[NL Newbie]

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Range:22-QQ, AQs, AKo/AKs.


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he is 17/7 and UTG... How can you put him on such a loose range?!

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Because its a small sample size, he may not be positionally aware and could stick to this range from UTG up to button.

Which gives him this range, but it doesn't matter much anyway what his raising range is - Its what calls/folds/raises us here, so its fairly irrelevent.

Actually, i'd remove AQ from that - So my concern is Sets/AK really.

Uhh its NL$20, my bad - $6pot, $3 flop bet, $12 pot on turn. $14 left each.

Hmm - We beat/lose 6(sets)/6(AK).
Villan doesnt always stack off with AK to a reraise, 2:1 if he shoves turn or river.

Umm - Does he call a reraise w/JJ or 99...does he stack off with AK.

Gem - Whats your image? History?

[Genz]

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you don't want to be controlling the pot here, you want to be building a big one. You arent folding anywhere

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I'm not looking for a fold. I was wondering if I should be looking for a safe turn before commiting.