river bluff against flush draw

[Schiester]

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I'd say with a VPIP + WtSD ratio like this villan is probably only going to SD with a pair (however poor) and A high at best. This river is a bluff against a calling station when all he needs is one of 15 of 47 remaining cards in the deck. The only hands that you beat are A6- or 8 high.

That said I would expect him to bet out at you with any piece of that board given an AF of 0.75 with a VPIP of 78.

Not a value bet I'd be too keen to make.

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WHA?? Villain doesnt like betting with that low af.

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villans honesty (so to speak) is a function of VPIP vs AF.

ie. a villan with VPIP 5 + AF 10 is probably not bs'ing as often as one thats 35 + AF 3

So .. with a VPIP of 5 you'd expect one to bet out quite often rather than flat call given the fact the the range dictated by a low VPIP is very strong.

This guy is playing 78% of cards dealt and betting out on 75% of those hands after the flop... kinda fishy? Noone hits that often (given sample size is tiny and AF is not statistically significant).