200NL - 2 Really Sick River Decisions

[Bluegrassplayer]

That is true, the raise does look stronger, but it would still look much stronger if you bet the turn. Depending on your image I think that he can consider this an attempt to take the pot down on what could be a bad card.

[futuredoc85]

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That is true, the raise does look stronger, but it would still look much stronger if you bet the turn. Depending on your image I think that he can consider this an attempt to take the pot down on what could be a bad card.

[/ QUOTE ]

alright now we're getting somehwere [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] . i agree he may see this as a bluff, but the type of player in this hand, while he may decide to call w/ a worse hand very often, is not the type of player to make a sick 3-bet river bluff here with air especially not laying those odds.

[Proofrock]

Would somebody care to reply to my last few posts? I think they're relevant enough to the decision that I'd like some feedback.

[pureCra2z]

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feels dirty but fold hand 1

call and lose to KK on hand 2

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.

[too eazy]

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Zeebo theorem only works on idiots and calling stations.

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I think you misunderstood what I was saying. If Villain had, say, QQ here, after OP checks behind on the turn there's a good chance his hand is good, since OP will probably bet the turn with a set to get money in easier on the river. When OP raises the river, Villain could use Zeebo to justify shoving because QQ fares well against a range of 88+ and it will be hard for OP to fold any of those hands getting 3 to 1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is semi correct. But the villain is probably too nitty to b/3b anything but seminuts here and due to the hand being posted and OP losing it must be a fold.

[ASPoker8]

In real life I folded H1

I'm not a predictable clown who posts every showdown he loses.

[Proofrock]

Speaking of which, everybody is referring to Villain being super nitty. OP, what's the sample size? Any other relevant poker tracker stats?

[ASPoker8]

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Speaking of which, everybody is referring to Villain being super nitty. OP, what's the sample size? Any other relevant poker tracker stats?

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sample size is very large, large enough to be significant. if otherwise, I would have said so

[Proofrock]

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[ QUOTE ]
Speaking of which, everybody is referring to Villain being super nitty. OP, what's the sample size? Any other relevant poker tracker stats?

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sample size is very large, large enough to be significant. if otherwise, I would have said so

[/ QUOTE ]

Great, thanks for clearing that up for me. And you're confident that he wouldn't shove TT-QQ even 1/18th of the time? If so, then a fold is fine.

[CalledDownLight]

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That is true, the raise does look stronger, but it would still look much stronger if you bet the turn. Depending on your image I think that he can consider this an attempt to take the pot down on what could be a bad card.

[/ QUOTE ]

alright now we're getting somehwere [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] . i agree he may see this as a bluff, but the type of player in this hand, while he may decide to call w/ a worse hand very often, is not the type of player to make a sick 3-bet river bluff here with air especially not laying those odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

what if he doesn't have a pair? Then he can shove right? Say he missed his straight draw and bluffs the river and sees your raise as weak. I don't think you can just say a 12/6/1 never bluffs like this because I've seen it done by treysfull and he runs pretty nitty.