wii selling for $400+ again on ebay

[Nicholasp27]

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Blame Nintendo for not producing enough Wiis tbh...

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A good friend of mine is senior LP at a Best Buy, they have 60+ Wii's sitting in the back, Nintendo isn't letting them put any more out til December 2nd. They're producing enough I would imagine they're just keeping the demand hot.

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That is a complete lie. Nintendo doesn't regulate street dates after initial launch. Either best buy is saving them or your friend is jerking you around.

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best buy is saving them for sunday so it can go in their ad...most of the big chains do this with wiis since they can't keep them in stock even during the week, so they use them as an advertising vehicle to drive traffic to the store on the weekend

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Thats completely true but they do this independent from Nintendo.

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exactly; i was saying that the stores are doing it vs his friend jerking him around

[Nicholasp27]

since i've been doing the research and thinking about the console sales, i'll go ahead and make my predictions:

wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07
wii will sell 45mil by 12/31/08
wii will sell 75mil by 12/31/09
wii will sell 105mil by 12/31/10
wii will outsell ps2 before it's 5th year anniversary (11/17/11)

[4 High]

Are you factoring in how well PS2 still sells?

[Nicholasp27]

yeah; i think ps2 will end up around 135-140mil when it's done, with maybe 90mil unique buyers (rest of sales are 2nd/3rd/4th/etc after 1st broke)

[4 High]

Are you seriously trying to claim the PS2 has a 35% failure rate?

[Nicholasp27]

failure rate is time-sensitive

automobiles have a low failure rate in year one, but a much higher one in year 10

anecdotally, everyone i know who has a ps2 purchased at least 2 of them, with many purchasing 3-4 of them, because theirs broke

but it usually breaks after 2-3 years, not 1 year...so it's not counted in any counts and doesn't count for the 'failure rate' which would normally be over a 1 year period

to put it another way: i don't believe that there are 100 million currently working ps2s out there...i believe that of the 120-125million currently sold, 20-25% failed at some point (some are 6 years old and failed, some fail in the first year, some fail after 2 years)

there was even a lawsuit about the high failure rate

[4 High]

I would believe maybe 5-10% but no way do i buy 35% of PS2's have failed over time. I know there were some bugs in the first few versions, but they corrected it much quicker then MS has corrected their problems.

What is the typical failure rate after 2-3 years on consoles say from 16 Bit on? Are you saying that failure rate is the norm, or excessive?