2/4 B&M - JT and I raise KT92 on turn; standard or spewarific?

[gobbledygeek]

2/4 B&M, 10 handed, juiciest table I've played at in months (not full of regulars but instead horrible players)

Hero is up 50BB, running over table and has just colored up. May be tilting and playing a little too loosely preflop.

MP2 is quiet total unknown. Compared to others at this table he is a little tight (i.e. he's not playing 80% of his hands).

Rest at table will pretty much call with any part of anything for one bet; maybe not two bets though, especially on the turn...

Preflop: Hero is HJ with J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
4 calls, Hero raises, CO calls, Buttons calls, SB folds, BB calls, everyone else calls

Flop (8 players, 16 SB): K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
checked to MP2 who bets, Hero raises, CO calls, Button calls, 2 other calls, MP2 calls

Turn (6 players, 14 BB): 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
checked to MP2 who bets, Hero raises...

Should I have raised this flop or waited for the turn to do so? I fear I might have bloated the pot too much on the flop where even 4 and perhaps 3 outers could have called. On the turn, I'm getting 15:1 which is more than enough for my gutshot alone. I'm raising to hopefully clear up my J outs and for a free showdown. Standard?

GcluelessnoobG

[Scarmiglio]

Spew. When a tightish player donks into the PFR on this board, your second pair is no good. When you get donked on the turn after raising the flop you are way behind. Raising the turn may push out other players, but you have only 4 outs if MP2 has 99 or KT and only 3 outs if he's betting QJ. Also, a jack likely does more harm than good regardless. You have outs to call, but you're not pushing anyone off a better hand with a raise.

[James.]

does he do this with any hand worse than a pair of kings?

[BigBadBabar]

spew

[gobbledygeek]

I've never played with MP2 before so he's total unknown. But I'm thinking at the very least he has a pair of Kings; most likely more than that. I re-read a section in SSHE the night before saying not to be afraid to invest extra bets in a large pot if it increases your chances of winning it. I was thinking maybe freeing up my Jack outs (by folding a Queen) was worth the raise (although I'm kinda thinking my two pair might not be good here anyways); but it looks like I was spewing.

[Lanzalot]

On the flop, you don't have as clear an idea what MP2 might be donking, so your raise there is defensible in a big pot. But the turn one is just spew. What makes is spew is that even if you can get out AQ, KQ, QT-Q8, you likely aren't beating MP2 if you catch a J. When he bets the second time he has something like KT, TT, or 99. KQ and KJ are possible too, though somewhat unlikely, and they don't spell good news for you either. Could even have QJ and didn't want to re-raise the flop to keep players in.

Seems like you need a pretty serious parlay here: getting out the Qs, hitting your hand, and having it hold up. So just play to hit the queen yourself and call the turn, the odds are there.

[Budget Boy]

I sometimes get carried away with that concept from Small Stakes myself. It can get to the point where you're almost looking for any reason to raise in a big pot. I like the preflop raise in this hand, you've built a big pot and have good odds to call, so I would make your odds even better by just calling the flop and turn and bring others in behind you. I don't think a free showdown is a reason to raise here, I can't see you winning unimproved.

[gobbledygeek]

What do people think of the flop raise? It seems weird that in a big pot worth winning (i.e. worth knocking others out) that I'd go into call flop / call turn mode when the bet is coming from my immediate right.

GmisapplyingconceptsismybusinessandbusinessisgoodG

[James.]

gg,

given the pot size, i like the flop raise. i love it if this guy is capable of betting worse than a King or folding a weak tp hand.

[W. Deranged]

I think pre-flop and flop are perfect.

On the turn, I think a raise is a spew largely because there just aren't enough hands that realistically have outs against us, and it is really our exact hand that is going to take the worst kind of beating when two bets go in to the flop. Having a J and the gutshot draw seriously limit the risks inherent in letting the turn go through cheap. An A is the only overcard to which we are vulnerable, and that doesn't strike enough fear in my heart to overcome my fear of spewing two bets when drawing relatively thin.