(NLTRN) Bizarre river bet vs winning LAG

cwar · #1 05-18-2007, 06:04 PM

Villain is a pretty big winner over 900 matches with a 9% ROI this is the second hand of the match although Ive played him before and my notes are that he defends any two cards and floats a lot I dont remember anything from the first match just the notes.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t15/t30
2 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: t1545
BB: t1455

Pre-flop: (2 players) Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero raises to t90, BB calls t60 (pot was t105).

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t180, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t130, BB calls t130 (pot was t310).

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t440, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t300, BB calls t300 (pot was t740).

River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t1040, 2 players)
BB bets t240, Hero raises all-in t1025

MasterLJ · #2 05-18-2007, 06:13 PM

You're only winning this if he has air or possibly a 7. I don't think any J plays it this way and I think 9 is much more likely.

Austiger · #3 05-18-2007, 07:01 PM

It's almost never a 9. I like it. looks like a draw or a 7 which I think he folds. What is the buyin though?

cwar · #4 05-18-2007, 07:10 PM

This is a 110.

cwar · #5 05-18-2007, 07:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You're only winning this if he has air or possibly a 7. I don't think any J plays it this way and I think 9 is much more likely.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree I thought it was a 9, a block (with a 7 jacks are super unlikely I agree) or whiffed air trying to cheaply steal the pot from another draw and I was getting a very good price on the bluff, furthermore its very strange for him to have a 9 here too given we know hes aggressive and probably c/raises at least a decent % of his flush draws on the flop so most of the 9s we are seeing are random floated gutshots which I consider less likely.