***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

[gehrig]

young was really really bad last year. a lot of the shine is gone there. i know pecota doesn't think too much of him now. maybe he gets good by the time he's expensive just in time for the twins to trade him.

harris is bad enough defensively that he doesn't really have any value. bartlett is significantly better.

[rwperu34]

[ QUOTE ]
young was really really bad last year. a lot of the shine is gone there. i know pecota doesn't think too much of him now. maybe he gets good by the time he's expensive just in time for the twins to trade him.

harris is bad enough defensively that he doesn't really have any value. bartlett is significantly better.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is this Young is really really bad talk? He was a little below average as a 21yo in the bigs. Not only can guys with tools like him take giant leaps forward, they are expected to. Even PECOTA projected a 28 point jump in OPS from age 21-22, which equates to 8 points in EQA. Obviously there is risk that he won't become a superstar, but the chances of him not being at least average over the next five years is on the low side. This is basically the Rays selling low on a five tool 22yo RF after one bad year.

[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]


What is this Young is really really bad talk? He was a little below average as a 21yo in the bigs. Not only can guys with tools like him take giant leaps forward, they are expected to. Even PECOTA projected a 28 point jump in OPS from age 21-22, which equates to 8 points in EQA. Obviously there is risk that he won't become a superstar, but the chances of him not being at least average over the next five years is on the low side. This is basically the Rays selling low on a five tool 22yo RF after one bad year.

[/ QUOTE ]

Delmon Young would be a great five tool prospect if he actually showed any progress in using those tools.

Delmon Young
Year Level OPS
2004 A .922
2005 AA .968
2005 AAA .750
2006 AAA .815
2006 MLB .812
2007 MLB .724

He essentially hasn't improved at all in the last two years. .815 in AAA last year isn't much different than .724 in the majors. The longer he stagnates the less likely it is he'll achieve his upside.

[rwperu34]

[ QUOTE ]
The longer he stagnates the less likely it is he'll achieve his upside.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's 22 in 2008.

[DesertCat]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The longer he stagnates the less likely it is he'll achieve his upside.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's 22 in 2008.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's been the same hitter for two years. Why didn't he improve this year? He was a year older this year than last? He has had the physical gifts of a player in his mid-twenties since he was twenty years old, he doesn't need to grow any more. He needs to learn how to make adjustments, i.e. hit at a major league level.

I'm not saying he won't figure it out. But usually great players don't take three years to do it. So you have to put his upside more on the level of a good, not great, player.

Manny Ramirez had an OPS of .997 in AA and 1.114 in AAA as a 21 year old.

Albert Pujols had a 1.000 OPS in the MAJORS at age 21.

Miquel Cabrera had an OPS of .878 in the MLB at age 21 in a full season in a tougher hitting park and league (130 OPS+).

At age 22, JD Drew's OPS was 1.021 split between AA and AAA.

Delmon Young hasn't sniffed these numbers at any serious level of competition. His "tools" haven't translated into "production".

Justin Upton had a .960 OPS split between A and AA at age 19. His MLB stats for his age 19 year aren't much worse than Delmon Youngs age 21 year. Justin is a stud prospect because he's improved tremendously in just one year while being forced up three rungs of competition. Delmon is an uncertain prospect because he's not improving.

You mentioned that PECOTA thinks Delmon Young will increase his OPS 28 pts, to .742 at age 22, which would still leave him one of the worst hitting corner outfielders in the MLB. If he has a season like that it will count as three years of the same lousy results, and won't give a lot of hope he'll ever be much more than an fourth outfielder or run of the mill starter.

[DesertCat]

Actually I thought about a couple more points. You keep referring to DY as a five tool player, but he's horrible defensively, he's got a strong arm but no accuracy, he strikes out way too much and walks way too little, is a lousy baserunner and hasn't shown any power above AA.

DY led the entire AL in outs and GIDP this year! And he was even a little lucky on balls hit in play.

So what five "tools" are you talking about? He's got speed, but he doesn't put it to any good use. What other tools does he have? He can hit for average but it doesn't matter cause he can't get on base at any good rate (and has been lucky on balls hit in play), has shown no power against real competition, can't run decent routes, can't steal bases, and may be a head case.

There are examples like Sammy Sosa and Roberto Clemente who took a few years to figure things out, then became (likely) Hall of Famers. But if DY takes another 3 years to play like an all-star, he'll be a free agent before the Twins get any real value out of him. Why do the Twins need a project in their outfield for the next two years on the off chance he'll bloom right when they can no longer afford him?

[rwperu34]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually I thought about a couple more points. You keep referring to DY as a five tool player, but he's horrible defensively, he's got a strong arm but no accuracy, he strikes out way too much and walks way too little, is a lousy baserunner and hasn't shown any power above AA.

DY led the entire AL in outs and GIDP this year! And he was even a little lucky on balls hit in play.

So what five "tools" are you talking about? He's got speed, but he doesn't put it to any good use. What other tools does he have? He can hit for average but it doesn't matter cause he can't get on base at any good rate (and has been lucky on balls hit in play), has shown no power against real competition, can't run decent routes, can't steal bases, and may be a head case.

There are examples like Sammy Sosa and Roberto Clemente who took a few years to figure things out, then became (likely) Hall of Famers. But if DY takes another 3 years to play like an all-star, he'll be a free agent before the Twins get any real value out of him. Why do the Twins need a project in their outfield for the next two years on the off chance he'll bloom right when they can no longer afford him?

[/ QUOTE ]

Five tools-

Hit for average-check
Hit for power-check
Run fast-check, although even the scouts predicted he'll lose his speed early.
defense-Scouts say he'll end up about average. I might be willing to give him a pass on 2007, depending on how much of his horrible defensive stats are due to his 29 games in CF. For example, the BP's stats have him at -6 in CF and -2 in RF. -2 is a little below average, but not someone I'd call horrible, especially when they are heading into their age 22 season.
arm-I don't really know where you get the no accuracy from. He's got a hose, and from what I understand, arm accuracy is one of his strengths.

Regardless of what he's produced, which is pretty damn good, the tools signify that he's got the athletisicm to be a star. The fact that he's in the bigs at age 21 and putting up a reasonable line shows that he's got the skills to be a star. When you add all that up, he's one of the best prospects around. I will readily admit, he's still a prospect. It seems like I'm the only one that realizes Garza is also just a prospect.

I wonder what players have tools as good or better than Young in the majors and minors? Once you make that list, eliminate the guys that are already stars. It's a short list, and few of those guys have put up numbers as good as Delmon at any level, let alone in major league baseball.

[rwperu34]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The longer he stagnates the less likely it is he'll achieve his upside.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's 22 in 2008.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's been the same hitter for two years. Why didn't he improve this year? He was a year older this year than last? He has had the physical gifts of a player in his mid-twenties since he was twenty years old, he doesn't need to grow any more. He needs to learn how to make adjustments, i.e. hit at a major league level.

I'm not saying he won't figure it out. But usually great players don't take three years to do it. So you have to put his upside more on the level of a good, not great, player.

Manny Ramirez had an OPS of .997 in AA and 1.114 in AAA as a 21 year old.

Albert Pujols had a 1.000 OPS in the MAJORS at age 21.

Miquel Cabrera had an OPS of .878 in the MLB at age 21 in a full season in a tougher hitting park and league (130 OPS+).

At age 22, JD Drew's OPS was 1.021 split between AA and AAA.

Delmon Young hasn't sniffed these numbers at any serious level of competition. His "tools" haven't translated into "production".

Justin Upton had a .960 OPS split between A and AA at age 19. His MLB stats for his age 19 year aren't much worse than Delmon Youngs age 21 year. Justin is a stud prospect because he's improved tremendously in just one year while being forced up three rungs of competition. Delmon is an uncertain prospect because he's not improving.

You mentioned that PECOTA thinks Delmon Young will increase his OPS 28 pts, to .742 at age 22, which would still leave him one of the worst hitting corner outfielders in the MLB. If he has a season like that it will count as three years of the same lousy results, and won't give a lot of hope he'll ever be much more than an fourth outfielder or run of the mill starter.

[/ QUOTE ]

Funny you brought all that up, because I want to put Delmon's youth into perspective.

Delmon was 21 years old for 2007 and had 642 AB. There were two others that had 300+, Billy Butler and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. There were two players in AAA that managed 300+ AB, Adam Jones and Daric Barton. FWIW, what Delmon did in the show in 2007 was on par with what Adam Jones did repeating AAA. There were a measly 13 players in AA that had over 300 PA at age 21 or younger, and not suprisingly, those are some of the best prospects in the game.

Heading into 2007, PECOTA projected 21 players with an eqOPS of .900 or more. It's safe to assume that these were 21 of the very best hitters in the game. This is where they were at age 21;

Jason Bay-Hit 2 HR in 135 AB in low A with a 17% K rate.

Carlos Beltran-Started the year in low A, finished in the show. Had his major league breakout at age 22 with an OPS of 99 (Young's was 91 in 2007, despite being a year younger)

Lance Berkman-Spanking bombs at Rice University. He wouldn't even sniff the majors until his age 23 season. His OPS+ over his first 446 MLB AB was a full 30 pts lower than his career avg through 2007.

Barry Bonds-Started the year in AAA and put up a decent showing in his big league debut. He's obviously a special case, but his OPS+ was 70 pts higher during his first peak and 150 pts higher during his second peak. Tools made good.

Miguel Cabrera-In his second season in the show, basically a major league super star. It should still be noted that he added 20 points of OPS+ from his age 21 season to his peak.

Carlos Delgado-Perfoming well in AA. He wouldn't get a full time gig in the show until he was 24, and even then he was 27 pts OPS+ better for his career and 40+ OPS+ pts better in his peak.

Adam Dunn-Outrageous year between AA/AAA/MLB. Hasn't improved on his age 21 season.

Jason Giambi-13 games of pro ball at age 21. Didn't make it to the majors until 24. His OPS+ in his first full season was 38 points less than his career avg, although if you want to put an * here, I'll understand.

Vlad Guerrero-Put up an OPS+ of 117 in the majors over 325 AB. Broke out to 150 the next year and hasn't looked back.

Travis Hafner-16 HR in 425 AB in A ball. Didn't get his first full time MLB gig until age 27.

Ryan Howard-Another college guy playing in low A, wouldn't see regular playing time until he's 25.

Nick Johnson-Out for the year. Was crazy as a 20yo in AA, and might be one of the few cases where an injury affects the career of a position player. Had an OPS+ of <99 thorugh age 23, 125 for career.

Chipper Jones-Put up similar power with less Ks at AAA. Got injured the next year, put up an OPS+ of 108 the next, 143 for career.

Joe Mauer-Damn these injuries. 100 dominant ABs in the bigs. 107 OPS+ at age 22 in first full time duty, > 130 since.

David Ortiz-Big Papi hit a lot of home runs in the minors, but started the year in A+. His age 27-31 OPS+ is ~50 pts higher than his age 21-25 OPS+.

Albert Pujols-Major league superstar, has only marginally improved since his age 21 rookie of the year.

Aramis Ramirez-Playing well in AAA after a failed MLB stint at age 20. OPS+ through 550 AB of ~70, broke out at age 23 with 122, slid back for a year, then had a peak of ~132.

Manny Ramirez-Spanking the ball between AA and AAA. Was a full fledged star by age 23.

Alex Rodriguez-In his second full season in the bigs and already an MVP candidate.

Frank Thomas-Struggled out of college in high A. Broke out at age 22, basically starting his peak immidiately.

David Wright-Had his breakout year, starting in AA and ending up in MLB. His career OPS+ is 20 pts higher than his age 21 263 AB season. Was likely as good as he's going to be by age 22.

[sylar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The longer he stagnates the less likely it is he'll achieve his upside.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's 22 in 2008.

[/ QUOTE ]

beat me to it. 2nd in RoY voting!!! what does anyone think of Young's CF skills? he seems to do better in RF, but just wondering.

maybe the yankees insisted on getting a CF player in return in the Santana/Hughes/Melky+prospects trade. could Young never actually play for the Twins? longshot, i know.

[Vyse]

lol young + santana for tabata + hughes + melky + horne

lollerskates