NL 100 FD + OESD vs probable straight

[Chutney]

Both villains are unknown so I assume bad players. Do I have enough outs here to carry on? If so should I just shove and have done with it?

Pacific Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.5/$1
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $186.19
UTG+1: $93.47
MP1: $89.4
MP2: $107.57
CO: $100
Hero: $95.5
SB: $75.9
BB: $75

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, CO (poster) checks, Hero calls, SB calls, BB (poster) checks.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($5, 5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets $4</font>, CO folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $12</font>, SB calls, BB folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($41, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets $23</font>,

[mlane]

As played call the turn, and obv c/f if u don't hit.

[zman2245]

Here is my math, please let me know if I am doing this wrong. If we assume he has straight then we have 20% chance of winning. So in order to find how much we need to win in order to make this profitable we solve this equation for x:

.2*x - .8*23 = 0 =&gt; x = 92
The pot has $64 now (before we call) so if we hit our flush we need to get $28 dollars more out of villain on river to make this turn call break even. So it comes down to what you think you can get out of villain if flush card hits. Since we are assuming bad players, you can probably get this as it will be less than 1/2 pot. But if you suspect villain will be very scared of flush then maybe it's not such a good call.