Aces facing river decision

cooker3 · #1 10-13-2007, 07:48 PM

Villain is running 21/18/4 over 1000 hands although he has been somewhat tighter at this table so far

I am running at 27/25/3 over about 70 hands and have been very aggressive and near running over the table

iPoker No-Limit Texas Hold'em (NL100), $1.00 BB (5 handed) SilverKitty Hand History converter by www.pokeronline.com.ua

Hero($276.25)
Button ($245.3)
SB ($60.18)
Villain($102.5)
MP3 ($100)

SB: Post SB $0.50
Villain: Post BB $1.00

Preflop:
Hero is co with Ah As
1 folds
Hero Raise $4
2 folds
Villain Call $3

Flop:($8.5) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img](2 players)
Villain Check
Hero Bet $6.5
Villain Call $6.5

Turn:($21.5) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img](2 players)
Villain Bet $14.5
Hero Call $14.5

River:($50.5) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img](2 players)
Villain Bet $45


What does he have and should I call?

mdkrahn · #2 10-13-2007, 08:29 PM

call.

missed draws a lot.

you can probably expect him to wake up somewhere pre-river with a hand that beats yours.

scorer · #3 10-13-2007, 08:35 PM

I think its likely he has a Jack here or a set of 2's. Close decision as to call but id lean towards folding.

mdkrahn · #4 10-13-2007, 08:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think its likely he has a Jack here or a set of 2's. Close decision as to call but id lean towards folding.

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how often is somone not raising before the river here with trips on a 2 tone board.

cooker3 · #5 10-13-2007, 09:19 PM

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you can probably expect him to wake up somewhere pre-river with a hand that beats yours.

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He did donk the turn

el_grande · #6 10-13-2007, 09:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think its likely he has a Jack here or a set of 2's. Close decision as to call but id lean towards folding.

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how often is somone not raising before the river here with trips on a 2 tone board.

[/ QUOTE ]

flop was the only raise opportunity.

I see this as a strength line - villain doesn't want you to check it through on turn so he donks.

KJ most likely.

What do you beat here? QQ and KK unlikely from preflop action, turn bet is a bit strong for a club draw looking for a good price.

scorer · #7 10-13-2007, 10:54 PM

I see him leading into hero on the turn to either get raised or at the least a call. Alot of times even if hero has nothing like AK people will call to see a cheap showdown/river card. I think he definately has a J or a set here