A5s: River raise?

[Frond]

8/16 Live hand from last week I wanted to post here.

Villain in hand is UTG. He is pretty bad. Plays marg hands a bit too far from what I have seen so far this early on. I already have a rack from him from a few hands. Not sure if he actually has a "little something" or a "big something here" or is steaming with a marg something.

UTG limps, 3 more callers, Heros is in CO with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] & calls, BTn in and blinds both in. 7 ways

(6.5 SBs) Flop comes 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Checked to UTG who bets bets, 2 callers, Hero calls, BTn and blinds fold. 4 ways

(5 BBs) Turn comes the Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] UTG bets, folded to hero who calls. HU

(7 BBs) River comes the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] UTG bets, Hero tanks for a bit and just calls. (9 BBs)

Did I miss an easy river raise here? I wasn't sure at the time the hand played & just decided to call on the end.

[sharpie]

Fold the flop. I'd expect him to be scared on the river with a flopped pair unless he thinks he's bluffing it, so I'd just call the river unless you think he's bad enough to bluff/call a weak pair.

[Frond]

Kinda thought my flop peel might have been too light. How many outs do you give me here? Obv after the turn Im going to stay in.

[gobbledygeek]

On the flop, I count 1.5 outs for the backdoor flush draw, maybe 1 out for the backdoor straight draw and I'm thinking maybe just 1 out for the A (since we only beat A2 and A4), so about 3.5 to maybe 4 outs at best. We're getting 9.5:1 with still 3 to act; at my passive table I'm usually not too worried about a raise behind me, so I guess a loose peel on the flop is acceptable?

I think I just call the river but that might be weak.

[Man of Means]

Weak A (2 outs) + BDFD (1.5 outs) + BDSDs (0.5 outs) = 4 outs. You need like 11:1 and the price is 9.5:1

You're not going to make a huge hand on the turn - often you're paying again to draw or making a 2nd best pair, OR people get scared of the Ace - so implied odds are against you.

That's why flop is a fold, though a loose call is tempting in hopes you'll get a free card due to all those callers.

River could go either way - read based - but I'd usually just call. Easy bet if he checked obv

[Frond]

I had good pos as well in this hand which made me want to peel one. Still may be a bit thin though but hey, I can do thin once in a blue moon [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[fishyak]

Look at UTG's betting pattern in isolation. It is limp, bet out, bet out, bet out. Since it gets down to h/u, the question is simple. Are you more 2/3's likely to win the hand? You need to be more than 2/3's likely to win the hand because, if he caught a set or two pair, you will face a 3 bet. Also, there is the risk you won't get paid on your raise. If he has nothing, he just folds.

IMO, I think you have that 2/3's lead. Villian is most likely to have either zippo or a hand like JTo. I doubt he bets out AQs and didn't raise PF.

As to the peel on the flop. I think you have the odds. Even though you have players behind you, people do not tend to run away from crappy boards like this one. NO ONE is scared of this board. You have TWO BD draws and an Ace overcard. Those 3 options together offer enough support for ONE round. I know that if you were U/I on the turn, you would fold there.

I had the same kind of hand turn into runner-runner nut flush on a huge pot @HG and everyone was surprised that yours truly (the tight one) would "chase that all the way down." The truth was I had 2 BD's and 2 overcards in a huge multi-way pot. The turn hit our flush draws and then both you and I had the odds to see the river no matter what. So double BD's for 1 bet in larger pots = GO FOR IT, particularly on disconnected, weak boards.

[youlosepork]

i like the play, raise river, villian has a 10

[earlytimes1]

anyone consider semi-bluff raising the turn?

[bravos1]

[ QUOTE ]
i like the play, raise river, villian has a 10

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes no sense... even if you know he has a ten, then why raise? He will just fold if he has a crappy naked Ten and he typically will only pay off when he crushes you with AT/QT/TT, etc in which he potentially 3bets a bunch of those.

Raising here really has no value if you are ahead and totally sucks if you are behind as he can also have 33 or 66 here.