Dun wanna miss a value bet on the river, with top T pair, mid kicker

[maverickai]

MP2 19.01/9.09/4.67,3.67,3.33 121hands

PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.07.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, HERO calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (15.40 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, HERO calls, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds.

Turn: (11.20 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, HERO calls, UTG+1 folds.

River: (13.20 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">HERO ???</font>

I'm putting him on overcards... I'm so tempted to bet for value here!!!

Bet or check? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[bennyhana]

hmmm.he's aggressive and tight, but I think overcards will check this turn UI the majority of the time. Especially after raising the flop donker.

I'd check the river.

[Fadook]

After 121 hands you should know by know if he's capable of being this aggressive with AK, but it looks more like the board pairing has made him scared for his overpair. I doubt you're ahead here, so just check behind.

[maverickai]

[ QUOTE ]
hmmm.he's aggressive and tight, but I think overcards will check this turn UI the majority of the time. Especially after raising the flop donker.

I'd check the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

But if he has over cards majority of the time, Wont' I be ahead here majority of the time?

I think this is a case when I can be getting one more bet from him since I figure I'm likely to be ahead to his overs.

Assumptions:
1) assume he'll call, since the pot is so big.
2) He'll still bet the river if he has overpairs, as he's TAG
3) He won't try to check raise me on the river, as I'm playing so passively, and his read on me would be I'd check behind him.

Hands I beat:
AK 16 hands
AQ 16 hands
AJ 16 hands
KQ 16 hands
KJ 4 hands
Total hands = 68

Hands I lose:
QQ 2 hands
JJ 2 hands
AT 8 hands
Total hands = 12

Total no. of hands = 80

EV of last river bet = ((68/80*1)+(12/80*-1)) = 0.7BB

Does this result mean that, I'll be betting 1BB, but with an EV of 0.7BB, and that means it's actually not a good bet?

[shadow.]

wtf at calling 2 cold on flop?

[maverickai]

[ QUOTE ]
wtf at calling 2 cold on flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have top pair, mid kicker, and these guys' are range too wide to fold my hand to such a big pot. I didn't re-raise, cos pot's big, and it won't protect my hand. I won't wanna fold top pair mid kicker in such a big pot, against loose passives.

Anyway, pot's laying me 19.4:2, and I figure I've 4-5 outs.

I'm thinking I might be slightly ahead here, but not much pot equity, thus decided to call and see the turn. If the turn is a rag, I intend to call to SD.

So that's my answer to your question.

[LateFlag]

[ QUOTE ]
wtf at calling 2 cold on flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

He's getting at least 10:1 with top pair and a backdoor draw. That's an easy peel even if he knew for sure that he was behind.

[kerowo]

Chasing 3 outers at 10:1 isn't a good long term strategy for making money.

[LateFlag]

[ QUOTE ]
Chasing 3 outers

[/ QUOTE ]

If you want to tell me that it's overly optimistic to count this hand a 7-outer, that's cool. But let's not go to the other extreme and pretend like it's just a 3-outer either.

[maverickai]

Yup, I figure 4-5 outs would be good.

1.5 outs for T
1.5 outs for J
1.5 out for back door flush draw

So maybe ~9:1 pot odds