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  #11  
Old 12-01-2007, 07:59 PM
BadBigBabar BadBigBabar is offline
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Default Re: Trouble with pocket pairs

hand 1 is fine with me as you played it

hand 2 is a b/f turn imo
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  #12  
Old 12-01-2007, 08:01 PM
myKing myKing is offline
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Default Re: Trouble with pocket pairs

BBB - what is a feasible alternative line for hand 1?
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  #13  
Old 12-01-2007, 08:28 PM
BadBigBabar BadBigBabar is offline
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Default Re: Trouble with pocket pairs

you can always check the flop and see what happens. i actually like your line fine, as long as you realize why you did what you did on the river. do you use tracking software like pokertracker or pokerace hud? reads on the other guys you play with always help, especially with tough decisions.
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  #14  
Old 12-01-2007, 08:39 PM
myKing myKing is offline
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Default Re: Trouble with pocket pairs

I'll look into that. Thanks BBB.
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  #15  
Old 12-01-2007, 09:26 PM
Mr.Busto Mr.Busto is offline
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Default Re: Trouble with pocket pairs

really set mining is key with 88-22 in MSLHE
people never fold anything that beats you here.
just drop it.
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  #16  
Old 12-01-2007, 09:40 PM
knockonwood knockonwood is offline
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Default Re: Trouble with pocket pairs

Hand 1. I would consider donking the flop (against passives), c/raising against passives and check folding against looser aggressive players.

Turn- Bet again

River- I don't mind the c/c to induce a bet off a busted draw or A high

Hand 2. Bet fold the turn
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  #17  
Old 12-01-2007, 09:41 PM
fretelöo fretelöo is offline
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Default Re: Trouble with pocket pairs

[ QUOTE ]
Ooops, you edited your post after I replied.

Regarding how often he has a fd, I wouldn't know. Any advice?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, some semi-serious analysis of this hand goes like this:

An aggro BB will have about his bottom 80% here. Everything else he raises. Of those, ~5.5% are FDs. Given that it's a limped pot on a very dry board, I'd assume he raises his FD pretty much every time because he'll think that the chance of him winning the pot by sheer aggression are by far greater than just by drawing to his 35% draw (esp. since this is a board that's hard to hit, everyone limped and he raises a flop bettor. Everyone else will fold pretty much everything but a J. Good result for him as you'll very rarely be able to call him down with anything worse than 55 or so and he very often has 50% equity on the flop vs something like that.).

He might call though with a semi-wide range, A-hi, some K-hi, something like QT etc. K-hi makes ~20% of his range, a pair of deuces ~25%; he has better than A-hi ~50% of the time. So with your baby pair, you have to decide a few things on the turn:

(1) How often will he call a worse hand than yours on the turn?
(2) How often has he improved and will raise you?
(3) How often will he bluff-raise the scare card?
(4) How often will he bluff the scare card if you check?
(5) Is the pot worth protecting?

Well, the last one is the most simple:
Since we assumed that he'll not play a FD like this, his range is anything short of a draw on the turn. So, he either has you beat, has 5 outs 20% of the time (2x) and has 6 outs the rest (two unpaired cards). So basically: either beat or 6 outs. Since with 6 outs, he has a 12% chance of improving on the river, and since the pot is now 3BB, you're investing the equivalent of 1/3 of the pot to prevent him to draw to his 12% shot. So "being ahead" and preventing him from drawing is pretty silly. Your hand has pretty little value IF he's not routinely calling down with A-hi here. How often will he call down with A-hi? Well, let's assume half the time. Since he has A-hi ~21%, that means that he'll call down 10% of the time with A-hi. Which in turn gives you ~30% of the time a value-bet, 20% you get raised by Kx and the remaining 50% he has 6 outs. Since the times he has 6 outs by far outstrip the other two scenarios and since it's pretty much 50:50 of whether you're ahead or behind right now, that bet has little value, even if he's calling with A-hi.

Next: How often has he improved and will raise you? Well, we already had that: 20% of the time he'll hold a K on the flop and he'll get this far relatively often with it. So you can probably assume to get raised here ~10%-15% by Kx.
How often will he bluffraise the scare card? Well, since he's aggro, let's assume something in the neighbourhood of "every blue moon", which is let's say once in 30 hands? so 3%? So in total you'Re raised by a K or a bluff ~16-18% of the time, let's just take 15%. Of those, ~25% will be a bluff. Now, pot will be 6BB if raised on the turn, with you haveing to call 2 more to win 7. So you need to be good here 22% of the time. Which in effect means that if he's bluffing just 3% of the time, and YES, a loose-aggro guy WILL bluff that often, you'd have to call down from the raise, because the chance his raise is a bluff compared to a K is the same or higher than the price you're getting. However, I don't think you're comfortable calling down though... So that also argues for a check.

How often will he bluff the scare card when you check? Well, if he's got half a brain, he'll be far more likely to bet the turn with air than with a deuce. Since he'll have 2x 20%, Kx 20%, that leaves 60% for possible bluffing spots. Let's just say he bluffs 1/3 of those. So 20% of the time you'll get a bet from a worse hand. Now, just assuming the times he has a real hand: 20% of the time he'll have a K and raise you. 20% of the time he has a deuce and call you. 20% of the time he has total trash, he'll bet if checked to and probably very often if he doesn't feel like it, he'll just fold his air to a turn bet.
Given that he'll have a hand that's able to call your bet just as often as he'll have a hand that'll raise you (which results in a net loss unless you're willing to fold to his raise), and given that he'll have a hand that's able to call you just as often as he'll bluff you by betting himself, picking up a bluff in a 3BB pot 20% of the time is a pretty good result, because of the following:

Will he call you down with a deuce? Probably. Will he bet a deuce on the river if checked to twice? Yup. So, over both streets and his whole range, you pretty much get a bet out of a worse hand by checking ~40% of the time. By betting you're getting raised 20% of the time, get a fold ~50% of the time and a call 20% of the time.
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  #18  
Old 12-01-2007, 09:43 PM
fretelöo fretelöo is offline
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Default Re: Trouble with pocket pairs

[ QUOTE ]
really set mining is key with 88-22 in MSLHE
people never fold anything that beats you here.
just drop it.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's bull. Sorry. The key is not how often they're folding, the key is how often they're bluffing.
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  #19  
Old 12-01-2007, 09:47 PM
knockonwood knockonwood is offline
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Default Re: Trouble with pocket pairs

Fret - Solid analysis. Nice work.
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  #20  
Old 12-01-2007, 11:49 PM
Smurph64 Smurph64 is offline
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Default Re: Trouble with pocket pairs

Hand 1 is strictly knowing the opponents for me. Playing it blind I like to check/raise the flop if it can isolate otherwise I call and consider a check/raise on the turn.

Bottom line though, I also have no problem folding this if its two people back to me.

Hand 2 I bet/fold the turn more often than not.

Objectively however I hope I have reads on these guys before I have to play this type of holding in a 6 max game.
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