Hand vs Jason T that I forgot about 20/40

[DeathDonkey]

Commerce 20/40. I'm playing a bit LAG preflop but good postflop and Jason is just all around expert [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I raise MP with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] folded to Jason in BB who calls.

Flop is 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Jason checks, I bet, Jason calls.

Turn J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Jason bets out, I pause and call. Anyone raise here?

River J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Jason quickly checks, I bet, he super fast checkraises. I fold?

-DeathDonkey

[Bill King]

i dont know how you cant call here.


its probably just as good as a chance that he is bluffing at the spade.

[Ryan11]

No way I can fold here, I think there are too many hands that he could take that line with that you beat to fold.

[BoxTree]

I fold because I don't think he'd donkcheckraise the river with anything less than the Ace-high flush...even if it's Jason.

I can't see you winning this unless Jason has total air. And I just don't see you folding any hand that you're willing to bet on the end (unless he puts you on total air and figures he can ONLY win by getting you to fold, which I think is very unlikely). So I think he wants a call and has you beat. Value check-raising the river with three Jacks or nothing higher than the Queen-high flush? I don't think so. Not even for Jason.

So, here are my guesses:

Full house (flopped set): ~50%
Nut flush: 49% (I'm not quite sure if he flopped it or rivered it...I'll think about this later)
6 high: ~1%

[BoxTree]

[ QUOTE ]
Turn J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Jason bets out, I pause and call. Anyone raise here?

[/ QUOTE ]

I raise the turn about 100% of the time. Gutshot + overcard + draw to second nut flush = raise. And it makes the river play a lot easier. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[DeathDonkey]

Boxtree I think you are dead on in this thread. But I'm not sure about the turn raise, as Jason is going to 3 bet me sometimes and I'm going to hate having to call that when I could be drawing dead. I don't think he bet/folds alot against me, given my image and the number of obvious semibluffing hands I could have. Agree 100% with your thoughts on the river though.

-DeathDonkey

[Justin A]

Are you sure you didn't post this hand already? I think you did, maybe as a sidebar in another thread because I remember replying that there's no way you should be betting this river.

[DeathDonkey]

Your memory is good, it was some internal thing. I guess Jason discussed the hand with Entity recently and wanted it posted. So you like a check behind? Interesting.

-DeathDonkey

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
Your memory is good, it was some internal thing. I guess Jason discussed the hand with Entity recently and wanted it posted. So you like a check behind? Interesting.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

What hand does Jason have that will call your bet that he checks the river with? None.

[Kwaz]

Admittedly I don't play at this level, but against Jason I either check behind the river or be prepared to 3bet/fold.