2/4, 180 BB deep OOP w QQ

[zac777]

BB is 20/8/2.9, not much history with him.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($727.90)
UTG ($401.70)
Button ($183)
Hero ($875.35)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $16</font>, BB calls $12.

Flop: ($32) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $24</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $85</font>, Hero calls $61.

Turn: ($202) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $111</font>

I'm out of position, lots of scary cards can come on the river, we're deep - plenty of reasons to just give it up here, but if I'm giving up on that turn card I may as well just dump it on the flop. The only hands I'm worried about are 88 or a 9. There are plenty of draws he can have, or even something like 77 or TT that raised the flop to see where it stood. I'm actually tempted to just stick it in, but the stack sizes aren't great for that.

What's your plan from here?

[Kakashi2314]

Post deleted by Kakashi2314

[luckychewy]

i'd call him once more here.

[Isura]

call. check and decide on river.

[MATT111]

[ QUOTE ]
call. check and decide on river.

[/ QUOTE ]


I agree.
Good thing is you hold 2 of his possible outs and another 2 are tainted + TJ is more likely than 9x.

[FiSheYe]

Hmm quite hard to judge.. The flop call is definately correct, no way you can lay it down there without superb read, the flop raise looks strong while the turn bet could be an 8 screaming to get a fold or any flush/straightdraw. Tought position.. would be useful to know his river agression and how he sees your play. If he is a type of player who will check behind JJ-TT on the river or get suspicious if you check and the board brings another spade, you should definately call the turn. If he will bet busted draws and overpairs on the river then dump it instead of calling, because you will fold the best hand way too often on the river.

[zac777]

Unfortunately I didn't have any great reads on him. I think I had been fairly tight up til then, so he probably sees me as TAG. I agree that it's important to have an idea of what he'll do on the river. When I go bet/call, check/call, check on a board like that, I'm pretty much at his mercy if he bluffs his missed draws a decent %.

That's what I was afraid of, but my solution of pushing was probably wrong. I was thinking that the pot was fairly large and the folds I'd get from his weak draws/one pair hands would offset the times he had a boat or a 9, but I think I discounted the hands w/ a 9 a little too much.

How much do you widen his pf calling range due to the fact that we're semi-deep? I think that really changes the hand.

[FiSheYe]

Ya it's so bad there are no super experts in the mid forum.. I would love to hear a comment from a solid winning player of 3/6+ about this case... I think calling the turn is better because if you call 2 barells he must be afraid of getting trapped as well.. Imagine him betting his busted flushdraw or overpair just to run into a check-raise or a call by a 9... I doubt he is foolish enough to overlook those times he might be hanging himself. I dunno if I give him enough respect but there are around 9 to 12 spades left in the deck, he won't bet again if those come without having a strong hand.. neither will he bet out 77 or TT/JJ if an Ace or king hit.. so there are maybe ~35% of cards that will come off and give you either an easier fold or him a hard time to bet again with a worse hand. So call, hope to see a free showdown or at least an easy muck.. if a blank hits the river and he bet's his TT again so be it.. he has to bet at least 100 additional dollars but who is gonna pay him off? I doubt it.. and given that bet amount he might be afraid to lose a lot or not getting paid off anyways... So after reflecting again and without specific read I like calling the turn more than folding.. intending to fold the river against any reasonable bet without catching an extreme read or having a feeling.. but I just moved over from FL to NL and I am no good player by any means yet so maybe my analysis is off.. Using that one to improve my own game, too.
Expert advise appreciated big time!