Do you really believe in climate change? Gambling and global warming

UATrewqaz · #1 06-28-2007, 02:54 PM

An interesting thing I heard in the news recently. Some guy challenged Al Gore to a 10K wager (10k fight yo?) for charity regarding some of his climate change predictions.

The guy is a professor and the story is here (warning, fox news link, try not to go insane)
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,287045,00.html

And someone else pondered, with all these gambling websites out there where you can wager on crazy things (reality tv shows, American Idol, how many iPhones will be sold the first week, etc.) what if you put up lines on some of the global warming predictions?

Wouldn't such an exercise be pretty useful in determining whether or not the advocates of such predictions actually believe they will occur?

What sort of line would you want or need before committing alot of money? (I know it would depend on the particular predicition in question)

natedogg · #2 06-28-2007, 03:35 PM

try http://www.longbets.org/

natedogg

adios · #3 06-28-2007, 04:32 PM

I was in a bookstore today (Barnes & Noble) and saw Al Gore's book, An Inconvenient Truth, in the nature section of the book store. Thought it should have been in the politics section.

NewTeaBag · #4 06-29-2007, 02:03 AM

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I was in a bookstore today (Barnes & Noble) and saw Al Gore's book, An Inconvenient Truth, in the nature section of the book store. Thought it should have been in the science fiction section.

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wacki · #5 06-29-2007, 09:53 AM

Funny, the climate scientists have been trying to get the skeptics to accept bets for years. They've even openly stated "if Exxon was smart they'd front the bets for the skeptics". Now that election season is heating up it will be interesting to see if there will be more of these. Also, if somebody is honestly willing to bet on climate change I know a lot of scientists that don't make a lot of money that are willing to gamble their life savings with a generous 2:1 odds for the skeptic.

EDIT: This guy is a professor of marketing. And from what I can tell he's not a member of the AGU which means he's probably clueless. It would be interesting to see if he could answer some basic questions on the science. I'm wondering if he simply based his conclusion off of an "expert systems" program.

When it comes to skeptics it seems that most of them come from the marketing or economics fields. A curious trend to say the least.

GoodCallYouWin · #6 07-02-2007, 01:10 AM

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I was in a bookstore today (Barnes & Noble) and saw Al Gore's book, An Inconvenient Truth, in the nature section of the book store. I moved it to the fiction section.

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Nielsio · #7 06-28-2007, 05:15 PM

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Wouldn't such an exercise be pretty useful in determining whether or not the advocates of such predictions actually believe they will occur?

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Correct.

Another way of smelling the BS is looking at the consistency of what they are claiming and how they live their lives. For example: the major war parties should immediately cut all military spending to a bare minimum, if they also talk about how they want to help the environment.

autobet · #8 07-01-2007, 12:03 PM

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Another way of smelling the BS is looking at the consistency of what they are claiming and how they live their lives.

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In Gore's movie about global warming they are driving around in a large gas guzzling car/SUV. It's also doubtful he lives in a small home...

In a press conference in California about the future of fuel cells, Schwarzenager drove off in a Suburban and everyone knows he loves the Hummer.

Yes, it would be nice if these guys lead by example...Maybe its our job to sacrifice while they travel the world and drive SUV's.

TheGrasshopper · #9 07-01-2007, 01:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Another way of smelling the BS is looking at the consistency of what they are claiming and how they live their lives.

[/ QUOTE ]

In Gore's movie about global warming they are driving around in a large gas guzzling car/SUV. It's also doubtful he lives in a small home...

In a press conference in California about the future of fuel cells, Schwarzenager drove off in a Suburban and everyone knows he loves the Hummer.

Yes, it would be nice if these guys lead by example...Maybe its our job to sacrifice while they travel the world and drive SUV's.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT. Gore lives in the nicest part of town and ran up a 50k electric bill one month. He is a phony.

wacki · #10 06-29-2007, 10:26 AM

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Wouldn't such an exercise be pretty useful in determining whether or not the advocates of such predictions actually believe they will occur?

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Pretty much all of the leading skeptics (that actually have a relevant degree) have claimed that there will either be global cooling or some counter consensus variation in front of a camera or infront of Congress. Despite making proud claims that they will bet money they (skeptics with relevant degrees e.g. Lindzen, Gray, Michaels, etc) have all backed down when approached. When election season comes I fully expect some of them to change their mind. I expect the ones with the closest ties to Exxon, CEI, API, etc will be the first to switch. Either that or we will see some irrelevant professor of marketing or anthropology come out of nowhere and make bets. This election season will probably be the last election where the oil industry has a reasonable shot with their denial tactics.