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#1
11-05-2007, 03:43 PM
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Thinking too much??
QQ in the cutoff in a very loose 8-16 brick and mortar game.
3 limps to me and I raise but the button , both blinds and all the limpers call. Flop is 7 way and a rainbow J 9 7. I bet after it is checked to me. All fold except EP who I don't knoe but he just took a bad beat and LOOSE who sees almost all flops and most turns but is passive. We turn an off suit J and EP bets out, called by LOOSE. Now what??? I decided to limp along and see a 4 on the river. Again EP bets and LOOSE calls. 
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#2
11-05-2007, 04:04 PM
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Re: Thinking too much??
call.
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#3
11-05-2007, 04:08 PM
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Re: Thinking too much??
You mean "did I intuit too much?," right? Something told you you were behind here and in my experience this betting pattern at low limit B&M means you are most of the time. Some LL donks don't C/R (bless them) and EP could've flopped a straight, planning to c/r the turn, and then got nervous when it was only three players thinking no one would bet. EP betting a worse two pair hand on the turn seems kinda' implausible.
I don't know, but I don't hate your line here. I expect to be shown at least trip Js or better here a good majority of the time and am not usually disappointed. That being said, call the river.
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#6
11-05-2007, 04:55 PM
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Re: Thinking too much??
If I've added right, we're getting 10.5:1 on the turn on what looks like a 2 outer. Assuming EP bets the river and LOOSE's draw doesn't come in, we're getting 11.5:2 = about 5.75:1 to call down. Is it horrible to fold the turn here? Against certain known 2/4 regulars I think I'd fold without a second thought; against an unknown I'd probably call down but really hate myself.
GIhatethesesituationsG
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#7
11-05-2007, 04:57 PM
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Re: Thinking too much??
[ QUOTE ]
If I've added right, we're getting 10.5:1 on the turn on what looks like a 2 outer. Assuming EP bets the river and LOOSE's draw doesn't come in, we're getting 11.5:2 = about 5.75:1 to call down. Is it horrible to fold the turn here? Against certain known 2/4 regulars I think I'd fold without a second thought; against an unknown I'd probably call down but really hate myself. GIhatethesesituationsG [/ QUOTE ] id really need a good reason to fold this against all but the nittiest players. at least 40% of the time this is a random two pair thinking the J helped him. 88 is very common in this spot as is TT. sometimes he has 97 and cant read his hand. something i learned playing LLHE after a year - dont fold to turn donk bets after the turn card pairs the board.
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#8
11-05-2007, 04:59 PM
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Re: Thinking too much??
raise the turn. you see a 9 more often than a jack and he'll call down. also, loosey is often on a straight draw of some sort so we solicit value from charging him the max.
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#9
11-05-2007, 05:42 PM
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Re: Thinking too much??
[ QUOTE ]
raise the turn. you see a 9 more often than a jack and he'll call down. also, loosey is often on a straight draw of some sort so we solicit value from charging him the max. [/ QUOTE ] this is better than my line use it just dont call a 3 bet.
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#10
11-05-2007, 05:57 PM
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Re: Thinking too much??
If you call the turn here, you just have to call the river. 12.5 big bets by my calculation after the rake, you have to win only slightly more than 8% of the time. LOOSE could have anything, this just might be the hand that EP decides you have AK, you said EP took a beat so look out for tilt betting. A general philosophy you should have at these limits of not giving players much credit. Various reasons.
My reasoning before was aimed at dissuading you that raising was best on the turn, which would have been my first instinct (maybe yours?). You asked about the turn, not the river. I edited in the river advice as an afterthought b/c I realized what I had written could have been taken as advice to fold it.
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