The occasional semi-bluff with a lot of stress on "bluff"...

[bung]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain plays straight poker and runs by the stats of 16/8/1.5 over 200 hands.


Cryptologic
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $2/$4
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises</font>, 7 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4.5SB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 re-raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5.25BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>

Any good?

I figure that Villain has announced his hand quite clearly on the flop. He's no one to open-raise A9s from UTG+1, and he prolly wouldn't 3bet AKs on a board like this. Leaves a PP.
I expect to get a fold here very often if villain doesn't happen to have AA.

Any good?

[/ QUOTE ]

I usually won't try to bluff someone I put on a big pocket pair. Most players would just call it down. I also think oop bluffs are the toughest to rep.

The problem with this bluff, is that although your opponent's hand is defined to you, your hand is not defined well enough for him. What do you think he's putting you on? What do you want him to put you on?

[bung]

[ QUOTE ]
assuming he raises slightly less than his "full" 8% from EP (let's say 6%), I'm a 2:1 dog, getting 3:1 odds

[/ QUOTE ]

How did you figure out that you're 2:1?

[marchron]

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The only difference between my hand and those is that JT and T9 make one more str8. (And curiously enough, 'stove gives me a higher equity with J9s than with T9s)

[/ QUOTE ]
No kidding? Amazing how the better hand has the higher equity.

I would be lying if I told you I haven't done something like this before, but I need a really good read that Villain gets weak-tight with scare cards.

[Xhad]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The only difference between my hand and those is that JT and T9 make one more str8. (And curiously enough, 'stove gives me a higher equity with J9s than with T9s)

[/ QUOTE ]No kidding? Amazing how the better hand has the higher equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, the point I didn't get around to clarifying is that a large percentage of your equity with all these hands comes from pairs (56s has just as much straight and flush value as T9s against a tight PFR range*, so if you call one but not the other you're doing it because of pair value). The problem is that you stand to lose more against an overpair than you stand to win against whiffed overcards, especially being OOP.


*OK, barring situations when the board is something like 789TJ but seriously