|
#1
|
|||
|
|||
When to middle?
A couple times recently I've had a chance to take a middle position, but am not sure when it is profitable. At lines of -110 on both sides of a bet, is capturing one number worth paying the vig on any other outcome? How many, or which, numbers do you need to capture to make it profitable?
Examples: -A few weeks ago, I had $110 on Texas A&M -6 vs. Oklahoma St to win $100, and by the time the game kicked off, the line was Texas A&M -7.5. By taking Oklahoma state +7.5 at $110, I win $200 if A&M wins by 7, I win $100 if A&M wins by 6, and I lose $10 on any other outcome. Since I have a key number here (7), and 6 is good too, I suspect I should jump on OSU +7.5 every time here? If that is an obvious place to take the shot, where is the threshold? If the line had merely moved to OSU +7, I win $100 if A&M wins by 6 or 7, is this worth the $10 hit on any other outcome? -This past weekend, I had $110 on Toledo (pick) vs. Ohio, and by kickoff, Toledo was a 1.5 favorite. I could take Ohio +1.5 to win $200 if Toledo wins by 1 point, but I'd lose the $10 vig on any other outcome. Doesn't seem worth it here.... -This upcoming weekend, I have Oregon -2.5. If the line moves to 3.5, do I jump on USC and hope for that 3 point Oregon win? |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: When to middle?
Unless you now think that the second bet would be +EV on its own, you should just be happy that the line has moved in your favor.
|
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: When to middle?
[ QUOTE ]
Unless you now think that the second bet would be +EV on its own, you should just be happy that the line has moved in your favor. [/ QUOTE ] If you're flat betting, yes. If you're betting with kelly criterion, you should be hedging. Though I don't exactly have all the kinks worked out, nor do I know exactly how to do this and how it'd fit with my current method of wagering. So don't feel terrible if you can't, but eventually... yes.. you should be hedging. |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: When to middle?
Thremp,
Got a question for you regarding Kelly and simultaneous correlated wagers. Say there is value on both the run line and the moneyline for a baseball game and Kelly tells me I should be betting roughly the same amount on each. Should I bet slightly more than half-Kelly on both or is there a more exact way to come up with the solution for this? |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: When to middle?
Sometimes there are better people than myself to answer:
http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...tml#post279578 |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: When to middle?
I'm bad about not looking for middles, but depending on your risk profile it can be an optimal strategy.
|
|
|