A5s in blind battle.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]

An analogy from trading:

[/ QUOTE ] I think your fundamental error is using trading as an analogy for tournament poker. A more apt analogy is to compare trading to cash poker. You can stay in the game as long as you have cash, and there can be multiple big winners and multiple big losers.

For example, in a cash game, if you have a bankroll of $10000 and are facing an all-in bet of $1000 with an expected return of $1, then you would be stupid to take the bet. Losing that bet will probably have a large negative influence on your future earnings. In cash, variance is your enemy when it threatens your bankroll.

But early in a tournament, if you are faced with an all-in bet with an expected return of 1 chip, then you almost certainly should take it. Losing your stack is not the big a deal (most tournaments you lose your stack with no gain). Doubling up early is huge, and can have a large positive influence on the EV of future hands. In tournaments, variance is your friend even when it threatens your entire stack.

At the final table of the tournament, however, the dynamics can change and your ideas might have more merit, where a bet that is +cEV can also be -$EV at the same time.