tptk agains HUGE fish

[Imrahil]

looks good

[Suigin406]

check turn is good, river is OK i guess, i could see a slightly larger bet which could get called, but OK

[kaby]

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bet turn bet river wtf

and the size is terrible bet like 34

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Way to contribute nothing to this thread.

OP - well played imo. I think betting the turn is too thin as the board is too scary for him to continue with almost anything you beat and a tonne of his draws got there. Even fish freeze up on boards like this. On the river you have the best hand a bunch and he should call with some wacky pairs (ones which often fold to a turn bet). Betsize is fine also.

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Everything that needs to be said is in that post. We have top pair top kicker vs a HUGE STATION. The only board where I wouldn't bet 3 times when the station checks to me and I have TPTK is a 4 to a flush board. No, this board is NOT to scary for a fish with these stats to fold one pair hand... hell I have gotten 3 streets of value from like 96o on boards like this before. I know the board is scary and it's thin, but it is +ev.

But say you do decide to check the turn. Then he checks AGAIN on the river. We have more than 50% equity vs his callrange, so you should bet. Now, betsize:
name 1 hand that the fish calls 21$ with that doesn't call 34$. One. That's all there is too it - he will call 34$ with (almost) all the hands that call 21$.

Let's say we have 60% equity vs his callrange when we bet the river. EV of a 21$ bet = .6*42$-21$ = 4$. EV of a 34$ bet = .6*68-34=7$. A 3$ difference in EV.

But you get spots like this a lot. I don't think it's too farfetched to say we get in a spot like this once every 150 hands. So the EV of a 34$ bet compared to a 21$ bet is 2$/100 or 1ptbb/100. I'd call a 1ptb/100 mistake pretty terrible when it's something relatively easy like betsizing.

You all feel really good when you check the turn, bet half pot on river, and the fish calls with his one pair, but you left a lot of value on the table. I think not getting enough value in spots like this (or the recent AK TPTK vs huge station hand where a lot of players didn't want to size their bets so that they could get 150bb stacks in by the river) - and vs calling stations in general - is a big reason for the difference between a 2-3ptbb winrate and a 4-5ptbb winrate.

[Dire]

Suprised by some of the replies here. This turn is not even REMOTELY thin, and checking the turn is basically spew in how much value you're missing. You can get three streets of value on guys like this almost always here. 45% WTSD means this guy is dropping top pair, never. He's almost never dropping second or third pair for that matter as well.

I have gotten snap called so many times on similar boards by crap like 97o. There's no ace and there's no flush, so he calls.