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#11
08-17-2006, 04:20 PM
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Re: 25NL A8s: How much can I raise here?
[ QUOTE ]
If he had the 7, he probably would have bet turn. If he had an Ace, he probably would have bet turn (as you should have) I'd guess he has a K. Say 70%K, 10%7, 10%A, 10%Air [/ QUOTE ] You're backing up these estimates with reasoning (Villain didn't bet), but the "10%7" still seems highly optimistic to me. 
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#12
08-17-2006, 04:46 PM
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Re: 25NL A8s: How much can I raise here?
Push.
Bet for expectation. He fold everything to the push except... 77, 7x, Ax. Based on the play so far who knows, but if he has a 7x, then you stack him, if he has and Ax you split, etc. I push here. It is just like when you are playing a hand and there is a board of A, K, Q, J, T with no possible flushes out there. You push. It is a little different because you lose to 77, but still also win to 7x. All the rest of the time you win the $2 pot.
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#13
08-17-2006, 04:54 PM
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Re: 25NL A8s: How much can I raise here?
[ QUOTE ]
Push. Bet for expectation. He fold everything to the push except... 77, 7x, Ax. Based on the play so far who knows, but if he has a 7x, then you stack him, if he has and Ax you split, etc. I push here. It is just like when you are playing a hand and there is a board of A, K, Q, J, T with no possible flushes out there. You push. It is a little different because you lose to 77, but still also win to 7x. All the rest of the time you win the $2 pot. [/ QUOTE ] I strongly suspected 7x based on the flop check-call. My thinking was that a K quite likely would have bet, and I didn't think Villain would call with air. I guess baby PPs are another possibility, though. I was tempted to push, but that $0.25 bet seemed so timid to me, like Villain was having doubts. (Or possibly he could've just gotten his PP counterfeited, in which case it wouldn't matter what I did.) Is 7x really calling a huge overbet here regularly? I would definitely push if I thought that.
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#14
08-17-2006, 05:00 PM
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Re: 25NL A8s: How much can I raise here?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If he had the 7, he probably would have bet turn. If he had an Ace, he probably would have bet turn (as you should have) I'd guess he has a K. Say 70%K, 10%7, 10%A, 10%Air [/ QUOTE ] You're backing up these estimates with reasoning (Villain didn't bet), but the "10%7" still seems highly optimistic to me. [/ QUOTE ] I see now that what I wrote is ambiguous. What I mean is that, on the turn, I think it's very optimistic to think Villain has trips only 10 percent of the time.
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#16
08-17-2006, 05:15 PM
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Re: 25NL A8s: How much can I raise here?
I can see how a villian going for a turn c/r might end up making a weak probe bet on the river. That's why I'm estimating 10%. If it is more it only helps us. I'm being conservative.
Are we talking about betting the turn? because there it matters way more. I might be conservative there and give him 20% 7, 60% K, 20% something else. Given that I'd usually bet there and fold to a raise. The 10% is arbitrary. I won't argue within +15/-5%
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#17
08-17-2006, 05:32 PM
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Re: 25NL A8s: How much can I raise here?
[ QUOTE ]
I can see how a villian going for a turn c/r might end up making a weak probe bet on the river. That's why I'm estimating 10%. If it is more it only helps us. I'm being conservative. Are we talking about betting the turn? because there it matters way more. I might be conservative there and give him 20% 7, 60% K, 20% something else. Given that I'd usually bet there and fold to a raise. The 10% is arbitrary. I won't argue within +15/-5% [/ QUOTE ] Well, see, on the turn I had Villain on a 7 something like 50 percent, and I was taking kind of a "let's see how much he bets on the river" approach. I was also feeling clever for realizing that the ace I caught on the turn might actually be a bad card for me. A turn bet-fold could be good anyway, though. As I learned when I caught my miracle card, I wasn't sure how much I could extract with the second nuts once I had it. In any case, on those occasions when Villain has 7x, my two-outer is only worth about $1 on average even if I can stack Villain every single time I complete my running boat. But I wanted to try to keep the pot small on the turn. I thought this would make Villain's river bet (assuming that river bet came) easier to respond to. I don't know. I suspected Villain was sandbagging, but I wasn't sure, and I guess I was trying to stay out of trouble.
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#18
08-17-2006, 05:47 PM
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Re: 25NL A8s: How much can I raise here?
[ QUOTE ]
Is 7x really calling a huge overbet here regularly? I would definitely push if I thought that. [/ QUOTE ] No, but when he does you win big. I'm just saying that you could make a smaller bet pot sized bet and probably win too, but depending on the player, yea, some will call a push with just a 7x. I'm still learning, but I like pushing here to maximize your expectation.
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#19
08-17-2006, 06:03 PM
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Re: 25NL A8s: How much can I raise here?
[ QUOTE ]
It is just like when you are playing a hand and there is a board of A, K, Q, J, T with no possible flushes out there. You push. [/ QUOTE ] huh? why in the world would you push when the nuts are on the board? Are you hoping villian is soooooooo incredibly stupid that he can't read the board for the absolute nuts and will fold or that he'll misclick and fold? All you do here is generate more rake and cost yourself money. If its not the absolute nuts, then go ahead and fire away all you want, but when the friggin nuts is on the board why create more rake? Please help me understand this. As for the OPs hand : pushing looks so much like a bluff that you might get paid 1 in 20 times by a 7 that thinks you're full of crap. I think I'd push here. ~FishNChips
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#20
08-17-2006, 06:08 PM
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Re: 25NL A8s: How much can I raise here?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Is 7x really calling a huge overbet here regularly? I would definitely push if I thought that. [/ QUOTE ] No, but when he does you win big. I'm just saying that you could make a smaller bet pot sized bet and probably win too, but depending on the player, yea, some will call a push with just a 7x. I'm still learning, but I like pushing here to maximize your expectation. [/ QUOTE ] There's kind of some psychology at play here too. If Villain has 7x, he's got to be annoyed with how the hand has played out. He flopped a monster, very little money went in, and now suddenly on the river his hand has lost a lot of its strength. Also, it's not really that easy to put me on an ace. Is he going to adjust and fold to a push, or will his irritation at how things have played out make him more likely to call a push than he would be if the flop had been AA7 and he caught another 7 on the river?
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