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Old 11-25-2007, 02:51 PM
jr4284 jr4284 is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Folding to turn raises
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Default Combinatorics messing with me...

OK, this is a rather simple calculation that for some reason I keep getting the wrong number.

Game is Razz, and you are dealt 3 to the wheel. What is the probability that you will complete the wheel after all 7 cards are out?

Total remaining 4 card combinations = combin(49,4)

Total ways to form a combination of the 2 cards I need, unpaired = 4*4 = 16
The other 2 cards, given that a 4 and 5 represent the other 2 = combin(47,2)

This should account for situations like 4445, which is a sucess holding A23.

Probability = 16*combin(47,2)/combin(49,4) = 8.16%

The MCU Poker Chart lists this as 7.15%

Where am I messing this up?
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