Ask a Technical Analyst

[The once and future king]

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Last 5 year average approximately 35% annual return.

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Do you think you will manage this over the next 5 years ?

[thehun69]

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What do the charts of SPY and VTI tell you right now?
I'd be interested in an opinion for the next few month..

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I will get to this tonight, once I set up a photobucket account, or something that can show the chart and all my markings on it to give you a better picture, short answer right now...

SPY - tommorow's action will tip the hat. If we go up, and break past 148, either tommorow or in the next couple of days, then I would suggest a long until 154. If we go down tommorow or in the next couple of days, and break through 144, then 139ish, is the next stop down. So we will see tommorow. This is how I trade. Anticipatory trades are very destructive. Let the market tip its hat and then make your move.

VTI - Same analysis applies. Wait for tommorow, break 148 on the way up, and watch for very low 153, if that,,it will be tight up there. One the way down, look for 139ish...

THE HUN.

[thehun69]

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Last 5 year average approximately 35% annual return.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think you will manage this over the next 5 years ?

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I don't see why not. I know that sounds egotistical, but that is an honest answer. I've developed a good feel for the market, I allow the indicators to give me a good representation of what is going, I keep my losses tight (which has helped enormously on the bottom line, and one of the key drivers to those numbers) and stay disciplined. It's taken me a long time to get to this point, I've worked hard, put in more screen time than I like to think about, but that's what has made me successful at this.

THE HUN.

[DcifrThs]

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Last 5 year average approximately 35% annual return.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think you will manage this over the next 5 years ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see why not. I know that sounds egotistical, but that is an honest answer. I've developed a good feel for the market, I allow the indicators to give me a good representation of what is going, I keep my losses tight (which has helped enormously on the bottom line, and one of the key drivers to those numbers) and stay disciplined. It's taken me a long time to get to this point, I've worked hard, put in more screen time than I like to think about, but that's what has made me successful at this.

THE HUN.

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what, in your opinion, is the ballpark maximum amount of capital you could have behind your decisions and still make ~35%/year?

Barron

[thehun69]

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Last 5 year average approximately 35% annual return.

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What chance do you think there is that your returns can be attributed to luck? This is an honest question, I ask myself this all the time.

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It all comes down to that old saying in golf, something along the lines of "I guess I'm just lucky when it comes to golf, the harder I work at it, the luckier I get" (I've seen that line attributed to at least 3 golfers) But that applies here. It's not about luck, I couldn't be this consistent with mere luck alone. I worked my ass off to get to this point.

THE HUN.

[The once and future king]

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[ QUOTE ]
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Last 5 year average approximately 35% annual return.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think you will manage this over the next 5 years ?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see why not. I know that sounds egotistical, but that is an honest answer. I've developed a good feel for the market, I allow the indicators to give me a good representation of what is going, I keep my losses tight (which has helped enormously on the bottom line, and one of the key drivers to those numbers) and stay disciplined. It's taken me a long time to get to this point, I've worked hard, put in more screen time than I like to think about, but that's what has made me successful at this.

THE HUN.

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The market for the last 5 years has been relatively "easy" to predict/fluke compared to historical precedent. I dont think the next 5 years will be so straight forward. There is 450 Trillion dollars (yes massive isnt it) in the credit derivatives market, and that market is going through some turbulence. Knock on effects/contagion of this will be unpredictable at best. I dont think it would be unrealistic for you to revise down your expectations for the short to mid term.

[tomek322]

What's your take on SYNL. It has tanked in the last few weeks? Is this the bottom or will it continue to freefall?

[mosdef]

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It's not about luck, I couldn't be this consistent with mere luck alone. I worked my ass off to get to this point.

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This isn't really a satisfactory explanation. You could be consistent with mere luck alone - in fact if there's a lot of people just like also acting randomly you would expect to see some perform "consistently". And working hard at something isn't evidence that your results are dependent on your inputs - I could go up to the mountains with 1,000 friends and we could spend 20 hours a day studying the very best ways to roll dice and when we come back down in a few months one of us will produce consistent results. Does this mean we can draw a direct line from working hard at rolling dice to consistent results at rolling dice?

[mrbaseball]

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The market for the last 5 years has been relatively "easy" to predict/fluke compared to historical precedent

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What has been so easy about the last 5 years that differs from any other random 5 year period?

[hawk59]

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The market for the last 5 years has been relatively "easy" to predict/fluke compared to historical precedent

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What has been so easy about the last 5 years that differs from any other random 5 year period?

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Duh, it's because he knows what happened over the past 5 years but doesn't know what is going to happen over the next 5 years.