Thoughts and questions concerning Venezuela

[Arnfinn Madsen]

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Sorry for contributing to the derailing, but bringing it up in connection with Venezuela is just stupid, since Norway isn't dependant upon the oil, the economy would do great without.

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No seriously, thank you. Its totally relevant cause we are looking for comparisons.

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I don't know what is most comparable, I would guess Russia is in some ways similar. Authoritarian leader, nationalizing oil/gas-sector, using it to fund the state. He also has military ambitions. But I guess Putin's ambitions have been reached, I don't know if he has tried to get control of other than petroleum and media.

Iran may also be a bit similar, I think their state is also relatively generous towards the poor funded by petroleum revenues, but I don't know for sure. Definately authoritarian and have military ambitions.

But both of Russia and Iran seem to want to have a big private sector, so they may look similar at this point, but their economical philosophy is probably far right of Chavez.

[kniper]

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But both of Russia and Iran seem to want to have a big private sector, so they may look similar at this point, but their economical philosophy is probably far right of Chavez.

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Yeah, this is my problem too. I can't come up with a communist/authoritarian regime to fit the mold. It would seem that Venezuela is unique in this respect and may have a very interesting future. I don't think it will be able to completely rely on oil, but its population is small enough (28m i think?) where its exports could really affect domestic life.

[tolbiny]

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That it is mainly oil funded is just a myth, remember that most of the oil revenues are kept away from the running economy.

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I don't know what you mean by oil revenues being kept away from the running economy. If the numbers I have are correct natural gas + oil exports are worth ~85 billion US$ (at $50 per barrel of oil and $300/ 1000 cu M for natural gas) and the GDP of Norway is around $262 billion dollars. How does that size of a percentage not interact with the running economy?

Minor point: Do you have a link to the 2% UE rate? I have 3.5% for 2006.

[Arnfinn Madsen]

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I don't know what you mean by oil revenues being kept away from the running economy. If the numbers I have are correct natural gas + oil exports are worth ~85 billion US$ (at $50 per barrel of oil and $300/ 1000 cu M for natural gas) and the GDP of Norway is around $262 billion dollars. How does that size of a percentage not interact with the running economy?

Minor point: Do you have a link to the 2% UE rate? I have 3.5% for 2006.

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The oil revenue is as default handed over to the central bank which manages a fund which is barred from investing in Norway, so they invest these money abroad. Some of the money in that fund is spent, but only a minor part. The philosophy is to try to make the mainland economy independent of the oil revenues and such secure a sustaining economy after the oil dries up.

Petroleum fund

Wrt to unemployment, we are both right, but you more. It is measured differently but has also fallen sharply since 2006:

Unemployment numbers

[morphball]

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As far as his military build up, I don't see how this should be a concern for the US. They are going to still be light years behind militarily. These kind of purchases are more likely for puffery than anything else.


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Chavez is not an idiot, my friend. His military build up is not for the Americans. He is running around calling Bush as the devil for one and only one reason, Chavez is running the country into the ground, and his yelling at Bush allows him to pass the buck onto American imperialists. Pretty soon, things are going to be really [censored] down there and that excuse will no longer work. Then his people will start to get rowdy. That's what the weapons are for.

[tolbiny]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the petroleum fund is only used for a portion of the profits, and deposits are in the 10-20 billion per year range, leaving more than 60 billion + in oil/gas money being pumped into the Norwegian economy annually.

[kniper]

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Chavez is not an idiot, my friend. His military build up is not for the Americans. He is running around calling Bush as the devil for one and only one reason, Chavez is running the country into the ground, and his yelling at Bush allows him to pass the buck onto American imperialists. Pretty soon, things are going to be really [censored] down there and that excuse will no longer work. Then his people will start to get rowdy. That's what the weapons are for.

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Good point. I hadn't thought of this, and it certainly explains a lot fo his expenses. But am I wrong in that he has also been purchasing a lot of anti-aircraft systems? This would obv be used for confrontation with the US

[natedogg]

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As far as his military build up, I don't see how this should be a concern for the US. They are going to still be light years behind militarily. These kind of purchases are more likely for puffery than anything else.


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Chavez is not an idiot, my friend. His military build up is not for the Americans. He is running around calling Bush as the devil for one and only one reason, Chavez is running the country into the ground, and his yelling at Bush allows him to pass the buck onto American imperialists. Pretty soon, things are going to be really [censored] down there and that excuse will no longer work. Then his people will start to get rowdy. That's what the weapons are for.

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Ding ding ding.

Chavez is already denouncing "hoarders" (you know, those people who don't bother to sell their products at a loss because price controls make it impossible to make a living). Wait until the "hoarders" are branded as 'criminals against the state'. It's coming to Venezuela a surely as it comes to all communist states. It cannot sustain itself and the figures in power resort to enslaving the population.

Also, the communists/leftists who support chavez cause he's done "so much" for the poor there just don't understand that what's bad for the rich isn't necessarily good for the poor. This is the mistake communists make over and over again.

natedogg

[kniper]

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Ding ding ding.

Chavez is already denouncing "hoarders" (you know, those people who don't bother to sell their products at a loss because price controls make it impossible to make a living). Wait until the "hoarders" are branded as 'criminals against the state'. It's coming to Venezuela a surely as it comes to all communist states. It cannot sustain itself and the figures in power resort to enslaving the population.

Also, the communists/leftists who support chavez cause he's done "so much" for the poor there just don't understand that what's bad for the rich isn't necessarily good for the poor. This is the mistake communists make over and over again.

natedogg

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I think you guys are assuming too much about Chavez's motivations. I think he wants to style himself as a modern-day Castro, not Stalin or something. And with examples of market success with China, I just don't seem him going so far as to instate a pure communist regime.

[Mickey Brausch]

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Rich people make for a rich country.

[/ QUOTE ] This is sufficient only in terms of the arithmetic mean.