Will Turkey Invade Iraqi Kurdistan?

blutarski · #1 07-09-2007, 09:38 PM

Well, will they or won't they? They may or may not have 140k troops on the border, and the military, which guides the government with a strong hand, has asked for permission to 'deal' with PKK terrorists in Iraq.

Ironic moment of the month: The White House asks Turkey to "respect Iraq's sovreignty."

iron81 · #2 07-09-2007, 10:59 PM

Certainly not while we're there. Turkey likes the US too much to do that and if they didn't like us they'd be afraid of us. You don't see anyone talking about Iran invading Iraq, do you? We're in no mood to let Turkey do anything because the Kurds are the only faction in Iraq that still likes us.

After we leave I have no idea.

Howard Beale · #3 07-09-2007, 11:37 PM

They are having a hard enough time trying to get EU membership (delayed, sidetracked and 'upon certain conditions being met' to death for years) to take any chances.

Plus: Shame on the EU for giving Turkey such a hard time.

JackWhite · #4 07-10-2007, 12:01 AM

I don't think the Turks can be trusted on this matter. Their history for consistency on their positions is suspect to say the least.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=73TtWwPkPFM

bobman0330 · #5 07-10-2007, 12:13 AM

I'm not as sanguine about this. Turkey has a pretty fanatical history with the Kurds, and with the apparent failure of the US to get the central government on the road to stability, they have to be pretty worried about a de facto independent Kurdish state on their borders.

Also, the EU's recent hostility towards Turkey's membership bid is going to weaken Europe's moderating influence.

AzDesertRat · #6 07-10-2007, 12:55 AM

While Turkey does have an abismal human rights records with its minorities, I would find it difficult to believe that they would invade N. Iraq. They may be using "gunboat diplomacy" as a show of force to discourage potential threats from Kurdish separatists.

If they do, that would be the mother of monkey wrenches==so much for Iran being the primary threat.

bobman0330 · #7 07-10-2007, 01:00 AM

I haven't been following this stuff super-closely, but it's also worth noting that there's some validity to Turkey's objections. I could be wrong, but my impression is that there really are Kurdish terrorists using N. Iraq as a base for operations in Turkey. Not that that would justify an invasion of Iraq, but it is a real provocation that might be pushing certain elements towards that course of action.

AzDesertRat · #8 07-10-2007, 09:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I haven't been following this stuff super-closely, but it's also worth noting that there's some validity to Turkey's objections. I could be wrong, but my impression is that there really are Kurdish terrorists using N. Iraq as a base for operations in Turkey. Not that that would justify an invasion of Iraq, but it is a real provocation that might be pushing certain elements towards that course of action.

[/ QUOTE ]

You use terrorists, I said separatists. They have been waging this war since the fall of the Ottoman empire. Other "stans" are also involved.

This is a result of how political boundaries are drawn with little regard to how people are actually living. Without a solution, it festers and eventually blows up like Yugoslavia and lots of countries in [colonial] Africa.

GoodCallYouWin · #9 07-10-2007, 10:37 AM

The U.S. will not allow it so it won't happen. The Kurds are naming their children George; that's the sort of thing Americans love.

ConstantineX · #10 07-10-2007, 01:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I haven't been following this stuff super-closely, but it's also worth noting that there's some validity to Turkey's objections. I could be wrong, but my impression is that there really are Kurdish terrorists using N. Iraq as a base for operations in Turkey. Not that that would justify an invasion of Iraq, but it is a real provocation that might be pushing certain elements towards that course of action.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is a competition between the two secularizing elements the Turks want. My gut instinct is that the Turks won't jeopardize their situation with the EU too badly to light the tinderbox, but the Turkish Army has wide latitude in their operations from the perception amongst the Turkish people as a "secular" force opposing Islamist tensions. Moreover, its forceful and antagonistic moves are extremely popular due to the real PKK threat from northern Iraq; the Kurdish people in general are trying to use the destablisation of the region as a catalyst to create their independent. The lack of a hegemonic power in the region and the Army's wide latitude probably means the tensions are still as taut as ever.