ROR calculations for HU with Martingale betting

[dwr]

A friend is playing HU to accumulate a bigger bankroll and is playing under the following rules.

He plays the $10,$20,$50,$100 and $200 levels. All levels have a 5% fee.

Each session he starts at the $10 level. He stops a session if he wins +$100, or loses -$500 (or the next buy-in takes him over that stop-loss)

If he wins a match, he then moves to the $10 level.

If he loses a match, he moves up a level.

He starts with a bankroll of $2000.


How do I begin to calculate a risk of ruin with this sort of martingale in the middle?

What is the minimum probability of winning matches that produces a ROR of less than 1%?

And how would I incorporate a changing probabilty of winning for the different levels (oddly enough he actually has a better return at the 2nd and 3rd level than the 1st.)?

Is the maths really as complicated as I'm finding it?

I have searched for ROR calcualtors etc but they don't seem applicable.


Any help is appreciated.