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#11
11-01-2007, 05:48 AM
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Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
[ QUOTE ]
i bet the river looks like he pumped a draw on the turn and caught the 7 on the end [/ QUOTE ] 76 ? it would have to be with diamonds I think. If the stats are to be trusted it's possible. Another line that could make sense is that villain raised preflop with a medium-small pair, waited to turn to see if it's safe (no broadways, diamonds) and then played it aggro with improved equity. After Hero didn't succumb to the aggression he's willing to go to showdown. Hmm. It seems closer than I initially thought. Still find it it difficult to bet-fold this. 
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#13
11-01-2007, 09:48 AM
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Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
It is really tough to put villain on a hand here because this line is so weird. Because he raised under the gun I guess another overpair is most likely. I check because I am confused.
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#14
11-01-2007, 03:41 PM
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Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
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part of me says he has 77 and rivered a boat and can't keep himself from being fancy. [/ QUOTE ] This was the first thought I had when I read the OP. [ QUOTE ] I check because I am confused. [/ QUOTE ] My thoughts exactly. If I am ahead, then props to him for confusing me enough to save himself from being value-bet on the river.
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#15
11-01-2007, 03:51 PM
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Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
[ QUOTE ]
Another line that could make sense is that villain raised preflop with a medium-small pair, waited to turn to see if it's safe (no broadways, diamonds) and then played it aggro with improved equity. After Hero didn't succumb to the aggression he's willing to go to showdown. [/ QUOTE ] For Tyler and others that may have been interested to know what villain had, Mitke made a very good guess. After I checked behind on the river, villain showed T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. By the way, I thought that my turn raise was reasonable as I considered it unlikely that villain would have AA-QQ as he did not cap pf and he then c/c the flop.
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#16
11-02-2007, 04:57 AM
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Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
[ QUOTE ]
By the way, I thought that my turn raise was reasonable as I considered it unlikely that villain would have AA-QQ as he did not cap pf and he then c/c the flop. [/ QUOTE ] Your turn raise is perfectly good IMO. Value and protection. I wouldn't fold to the 3-bet either in this big pot. 88 is the most likely hand he has to beat you that would 3-bet this turn. I agree he'd have played AA-QQ faster preflop and flop. JJ or even QQ are not totally out of the question but rare. 55 and 22 are quite unlikely here based on preflop. AQ-AT diamonds are possible but not very likely either. --- I can understand Villain's line preflop and flop. His goal on the turn must be to either extract the most value or win the pot - both are fine. Winning 6.25BB pot vs. two opponents on the turn is a good result IMO. Betting out protects against Hero taking a free card. A good line I think. Villain probably cannot count on Hero betting overcards on this dry board. I'm really struggling to reason why he 3-bet. Ok, pot is big but Hero has now showed strength by raising his turn donk on a dry board. This should signal a strong hand, when combined with preflop and flop line it should read as an overpair TT+ or rarely AK-AT diamonds. Vs. an extremely weak-tight Hero there might be some fold equity in turn 3bet - river lead but not much. He's story just isn't consistent enough to get folds in this big pot. Should Villain have folded to Hero's turn raise then getting 10.25:2? Probably. What do you think?
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#17
11-02-2007, 05:28 AM
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Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
Grunch
This line makes no sense at all. The only hands I can put him on at all are maybe 99, TT. Why would he check a full house or something? Maybe 8d7d a flush draw that picked up an OESD? Doesn't really make sense for him to raise that in EP though. No hand with a five in it either. Or an eight. Maybe he doesn't cap QQ pf? IDK. Wouldn't some kind of Ace high flush draw prefer to bet/raise the flop? Wow, this just doesn't add up. I bet/call because I think the chance he bluff raises the river are greater than him value raising it even though both seem possible given how it was played. Or you could just go to showdown now. Never bet/fold IMO.
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#18
11-02-2007, 06:56 AM
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Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
grunching
let's see what the range for UTG would be: His possible range: 99+, less QQ-AA. maybe 89d suited. He's pretty loose and raises quite a fair bit preflop. I can think that he is likely to have 89 diamond suited, given he might be raising the turn for value, since he has a flush draw and hit top pair. The reason he didn't raise on flop? his position dun allow him to get a free card, so he just called to pay cheaply. possible? But I would bet/call on the river.
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#20
11-02-2007, 12:17 PM
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Re: River decision after strange play by opponent
[ QUOTE ]
Should Villain have folded to Hero's turn raise then getting 10.25:2? Probably. What do you think? [/ QUOTE ] I think that it is hard to fold an overpair to the board, particularly in a big pot (although my turn raise seemed to represent TT+). I had also taken a few beats at the table, so he may have considered that I never had the best hand. lol [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] If I had been villian, I would have preferred a b/c, c/c , c/c line to the one he chose.
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