50NL: Like my stack a donk on drawy board?

[Genz]

I've been getting great cards on the table so I have a very wild image. Villain is a pretty bad player and I am convinced that he wants to take a stand (that's what I remember now. I don't know exactly what he had done that I thought that. But I was pretty sure).
His stack size makes it inavoidable to get it all-in if he has a hand that he wants to felt. I don't want to overbet push and I don't want to pay off when a draw comes in. So I decide to stack-a-donk which I think will be pretty successfull because of my assumption that he is taking a stand and therefore is pretty likely to have a sub-par hand and bet the turn in any case. In hindsight I realize the drawiness of the board, but I can't really imagine that the turn card has helped him. I actually think that the drawiness will make it more probable that he will stack off with a draw. So I decide to risk giving a free card. If he had taken it, I would have known pretty sure that he was on a draw or had a mediocre hand that wouldn't have payed off anyway. So what's your line? 3bet the flop? Lead turn? C/C turn? What does his bet sizing make you think? Tarp or weakness?

Villain was running 30/5/2.2 over a tiny 20 hands sample, fwiw.

Carlos Poker 0.25/0.50, hand converted by the iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker

saw flop | <font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Button Button ($40.65)
SB ($40.20)
BB ($45.55)
UTG ($63.08)
UTG+1 <font color="#C00000">Hero ($76.70)</font>

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
1 fold, Hero raises to 1.75, Button calls 1.75, 2 folds.

Flop (4.25) Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero bets 2.75, Button raises to 8.00, Hero calls 5.25.

Turn (20.25) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero checks, Button bets 8.00, Hero moves all-in for 66.95

[Ender Wiggin]

meh... this board is drawy and villain is a play-happy donk who can raise our flop bet with a wide range including draws? I'm gonna say 3bet the flop here.

As played probably lead the turn for value and protection given wet board texture.

[Hail Eris]

Bet more on the flop and 3bet over his raise. He'll call with any Q and god knows what else given the texture of the flop and your image.

As played, lead the turn unless you're really sure he'll bet most of his range.

[Genz]

FWIW, I was like 80% sure that he'd bet the turn there.
Argument for my line: His betting range is wider than his calling range for a 3bet there since is trying to make a move, imo, and I want to snap off the 2nd barrel. What do you think about that?

If you 3bet this flop and he pushes. Do you think it would be a good call?

[nutstoyou]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet more on the flop and 3bet over his raise. He'll call with any Q and god knows what else given the texture of the flop and your image.

As played, lead the turn

+1

[nutstoyou]

If you 3bet this flop and he pushes. Do you think it would be a good call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Against most players I would not call a push with TPTK. I would have to have seen evidence that he really overbets his hands. Based on a sample of only 20 hands and not having seen this I would fold.

[buttonpusher]

I like the call on the flop, however i would only check turn if i was certain he is going to bet it. If hes looking to take a stand with a kq/kj/qj hand hes going to call a bet on the turn.

as played ... wait for results.

[Ender Wiggin]

Genz

If you are so sure he will bet the turn if checked to (which btw I think is a reasonable assumption at 50NL), then I like your turn line. 3bet the flop tho.

[monkover]

if you are sure he´s just taking a stand your line is fine b/c villain is going to bet the turn for sure... i´d play it the same and c/rai is no that much of an overbet and villain is prob going to stack off pretty light.