Absolute Soulreading/Rigged thread #3

[krumeluren]

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Why have some people started trying to cloud the issue in the last few pages, as if it's still being debated whether cheating occurred, this was agreed on about 20 pages ago. Have some people got some kind of agenda here or something?

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lol

Never check a good story.

BTW, I play at party and have no connections whatsoever with Absolute. I don't even have an account there.

[ITWASSOOOOTED]

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Exactly, AP's credibility is already shot. Since any outcome is not in AP's best interest they need to allow someone else to run the investigiation, especially since they seem to even deny the chip dumping hands.

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Yes their credibility is shot to anyone who frequents 2+2 and has read this forum. Possibly to some on other forums as well. But not to the average Joe who sees an Absolute Poker commercial while watching his favorite poker show on ESPN or NBC.

The threat of bringing the story to the mainstream media and tarnishing their reputation to a HUGE amount of potential customers as well as existing customers. Existing customers who may not frequent online forums. If they want to stay in business they will be forced to explain what happened.

[dorethawsp]

Is it even worth nothing that the hand he bluffed off a ton and folding with only 90 left was to The Grinder, who was at one time (or still is) working for AP? Chip dumping?

[BrianBigNFun]

I thought that "The Grinder" AP online player is not Michael Mizrachi

[Wolfskin]

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If i interpret your results correctly, under the assumptions your model is correct, if you have 100.000 streaks of 100 hands each, one of those will show a win rate of 284bb/100 just by chance? How many hands are there in ppls PT-databases (which would be the population) and what is the probability that every once in a while we will find a maniac with those winnings without cheating?


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I edited my post, because I'm not used to the 1 in x thinking. The chance to run that good is 1 in 20 million hands actually, because the other time you will be on the losing side. The player I used for this analysis has won more than 1 million this year on pokerstars so far on 25/50 NL.

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And what if you increase the standard deviation a little? I mean, this kind of maniac could have a SD of 100 right? That would make it even more probable that such good streak could occur right?

EDIT: I just saw that the had a SD of 270ptbb/100 and that it was 190 hands. That will give completely different estimates. It would be very interesting if you could present a new analysis with those paramters.


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The sample size of 5 100 hand intervalls is just too small to provide any meaningfull result. However if you calculate it for 400, 500, 300, 1000 and 400 bb/100 hand classes using the one outlier of 1000, we get a mean of 520, a standard deviation of 277.5 and a 90% chance that the bb/100 lies between 63.5 and 1777.9 bb/100 for any 100 hand intervall. If we don't use the outlier and only 400, 500, 300, 400 we get a mean of 400, a standard deviation of 81.6 and a 90% chance that the bb/100 for a 100 hand intervall lies between 265.7 and 534.3 bb/100.

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your model also assumes that winnings are normally distributed. Do you think this is a good assumption and in what way do you think violations th normality would affect the estimated probabilities?


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I just assumed that it was a normal distribution and after checking it actually is one. Here is the graph:



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My guessing is that you will find a very high probabbility that such streak would occur in ppls PT databases, more than once.

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On heads-up NL 25/50 a 284bb/100 hand intervall is possible every 20 million hands. However to get a 481bb/100 hand intervall you have to look at approximately 2000 trillion hands.

[dorethawsp]

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I thought that "The Grinder" AP online player is not Michael Mizrachi

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If that's the case, my bad.

[ikestoys]

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Why have some people started trying to cloud the issue in the last few pages, as if it's still being debated whether cheating occurred, this was agreed on about 20 pages ago. Have some people got some kind of agenda here or something?

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lol

Never check a good story.

BTW, I play at party and have no connections whatsoever with Absolute. I don't even have an account there.



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lol you are a party player?

that explains why you have no idea whats going on

[Redgrape]

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Here is a suggestion.

It has already been suggested to approach Bluff or Cardplayer magazines. While this was a good idea, I highly doubt that they will print anything we submitted to them since it would affect advertising dollars from AP and most likely other online sites as well! There is definitely a conflict of interest for either of these publications to publish such a negative story. I would assume they would get pressure from other online sites not to print it. Since it could also negatively impact their business.

Instead, I suggest that we collectively create a statement that explains the situation clearly to anyone. Basically a cliff notes of the cliff notes. It should contain accurate statistical data, and it would not hurt to mention recognizable winners in online poker (assuming that they are willing to have their names mentioned) in order to give credibility to the story. Basically to show that it is not someone whining because they got "unlucky" and lost some money.

While this is being done, someone (maybe more then one person) perhaps apefish, if he were willing could gather names and contact info from people in every state and province in the US and Canada, and anywhere else in the world for that matter. These people would be volunteers who would , on an agreed upon date, simultaneously contact and submit our statement to local newspapers in as many possible cities and towns as we have volunteers for. At the very least we would have the story submitted to one newspaper in every major city in US and Canada. This would be over 60 newspapers at a minimum. It would reach a HUGE volume of people and if there was interest in the story, local radio and television stations would likely comment on it as well. It would be much a much more effective tactic to get AP to answer for what happened.

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This is a great idea, and I think we all should contribute. I will personally offer someones $20 an hour to write this and do a great job on this and i suggest other people do the same.

[Redgrape]

Someone mentioned that this way a bad idea. Wtf are you talking about? I work for flopturnriver.com, i could convince the owners to post it there (although this is a long shot i suspect), but we can get this article out into the public and it will do nothing but help the cause.

[krumeluren]

[ QUOTE ]
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If i interpret your results correctly, under the assumptions your model is correct, if you have 100.000 streaks of 100 hands each, one of those will show a win rate of 284bb/100 just by chance? How many hands are there in ppls PT-databases (which would be the population) and what is the probability that every once in a while we will find a maniac with those winnings without cheating?


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I edited my post, because I'm not used to the 1 in x thinking. The chance to run that good is 1 in 20 million hands actually, because the other time you will be on the losing side. The player I used for this analysis has won more than 1 million this year on pokerstars so far on 25/50 NL.

[ QUOTE ]
And what if you increase the standard deviation a little? I mean, this kind of maniac could have a SD of 100 right? That would make it even more probable that such good streak could occur right?

EDIT: I just saw that the had a SD of 270ptbb/100 and that it was 190 hands. That will give completely different estimates. It would be very interesting if you could present a new analysis with those paramters.


[/ QUOTE ]
The sample size of 5 100 hand intervalls is just too small to provide any meaningfull result. However if you calculate it for 400, 500, 300, 1000 and 400 bb/100 hand classes using the one outlier of 1000, we get a mean of 520, a standard deviation of 277.5 and a 90% chance that the bb/100 lies between 63.5 and 1777.9 bb/100 for any 100 hand intervall. If we don't use the outlier and only 400, 500, 300, 400 we get a mean of 400, a standard deviation of 81.6 and a 90% chance that the bb/100 for a 100 hand intervall lies between 265.7 and 534.3 bb/100.

[ QUOTE ]
your model also assumes that winnings are normally distributed. Do you think this is a good assumption and in what way do you think violations th normality would affect the estimated probabilities?


[/ QUOTE ]

I just assumed that it was a normal distribution and after checking it actually is one. Here is the graph:



[ QUOTE ]

My guessing is that you will find a very high probabbility that such streak would occur in ppls PT databases, more than once.

[/ QUOTE ]
On heads-up NL 25/50 a 284bb/100 hand intervall is possible every 20 million hands. However to get a 481bb/100 hand intervall you have to look at approximately 2000 trillion hands.

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Thanks for the update. There is a big problem though with your approach that you might not have thought about.

Your are trying to estimate a persons win rate from a small sample of hand where he obviously runs extremely hot. This means that the cards did not fall in a very representative manner and your confidence interval is only valid when you hit your cards that good.

I suggest that you use another approach instead. Say that this person has a negative expected winning of -20ptbb/100 with a SD of 270ptbb. What are the probability that such a player makes 284ptbb/100 in 190 hands? And when you have that probability, try to estimate the probability that such person could be found in the poker community's collective PT-.DBase for High stakes poker.