Antigua Up Ante - 7 BILLION

[oldbookguy]

Ok, I know there must be thread for this and feel free to move it.

Antigua plans on filing for more, doubling the claim to 7 billion.

Seems the first 3.4 is only over the WTO case, they believe they are entitled to file additional claims for the US withdrawal as well.

Story at antigua sun.

http://www.antiguasun.com/paper/?as=view...07&ac=Local

obg

[Legislurker]

You must type faster than I do.

The ante is going up. Im not sure how they could receive $7bn
in trade concessions for a country that small, but its a good starting point. I wish countries would ask higher, given that the US sports betting market alone is over $300bn, I think the EU should at least ask for $100bn(hint, hint EU negotiators). The witdrawl aspect is not just for "remote" gaming, but cross border gaming services. I think every country can argue a striaght line mathematical approach to the expansion of legal gaming in the US and how being excluded in the future to more and more liberalized markets is extensive harm. Imagine a new lottery run by EU firms in the US< how much that could net, because I think they could bring a WTO case on that. Maybe Jay knows why the EU is asking for such a low number? If market share means anything, the EU has a massive market share in worldwide gaming, and their claim should be tenfold Antigua's minimum.

[Richas]

[ QUOTE ]
Imagine a new lottery run by EU firms in the US< how much that could net, because I think they could bring a WTO case on that.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYI the UK has just granted the concession for the next ten years (starting in 2) to the incumbent firm Camelot. Part of their bid was a global lottery. There i already a European wide one. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Legislurker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Imagine a new lottery run by EU firms in the US< how much that could net, because I think they could bring a WTO case on that.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYI the UK has just granted the concession for the next ten years (starting in 2) to the incumbent firm Camelot. Part of their bid was a global lottery. There i already a European wide one. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I was really really hoping the EU would ask a sky high amount. $100bn sounded nice. Its not liek this wont go to arbitration, and you should always start hihg. I can only hope India, Aus, Canada, Macau, and Japan don't puss out and barely ask for anything. I hope CARICOM demands sugar and textiles concessions. They already have contentious garment
allowances. The sugar would hit Hawaii and Louisiana. The textiles VA, NC, and SC. Those are anti-gaming states all. Its high time to take some shots across the bow at some of their strongholds.

[permafrost]

[ QUOTE ]
Antigua plans on filing for more, doubling the claim to 7 billion.

Seems the first 3.4 is only over the WTO case, they believe they are entitled to file additional claims for the US withdrawal as well.


[/ QUOTE ]

Antigua wants about 9 times their annual GDP and they want that $7 bil every year? If that is true, how can they complain about the US not negotiating in good faith???

[tangled]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Antigua plans on filing for more, doubling the claim to 7 billion.

Seems the first 3.4 is only over the WTO case, they believe they are entitled to file additional claims for the US withdrawal as well.


[/ QUOTE ]

Antigua wants about 9 times their annual GDP and they want that $7 bil every year? If that is true, how can they complain about the US not negotiating in good faith???

[/ QUOTE ]

Antigua is not complaining that the US is negotiating in bad faith, but that they are not negotiating at all, whatsoever.

They are probably asking for that much to motivate the US to start negotiating.

[Legislurker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Antigua plans on filing for more, doubling the claim to 7 billion.

Seems the first 3.4 is only over the WTO case, they believe they are entitled to file additional claims for the US withdrawal as well.


[/ QUOTE ]

Antigua wants about 9 times their annual GDP and they want that $7 bil every year? If that is true, how can they complain about the US not negotiating in good faith???

[/ QUOTE ]

Antigua is not complaining that the US is negotiating in bad faith, but that they are not negotiating at all, whatsoever.

They are probably asking for that much to motivate the US to start negotiating.

[/ QUOTE ]

3.4bn is for damages SINCE 03. And the 7bn is as Mendel explained, or Jay one, is calculated on the size of the market the US is closing factoring in Antigua's market share. GDP size is irrelevant really

[permafrost]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Antigua plans on filing for more, doubling the claim to 7 billion.

Seems the first 3.4 is only over the WTO case, they believe they are entitled to file additional claims for the US withdrawal as well.


[/ QUOTE ]

Antigua wants about 9 times their annual GDP and they want that $7 bil every year? If that is true, how can they complain about the US not negotiating in good faith???

[/ QUOTE ]

Antigua is not complaining that the US is negotiating in bad faith, but that they are not negotiating at all, whatsoever.

They are probably asking for that much to motivate the US to start negotiating.

[/ QUOTE ]

3.4bn is for damages SINCE 03. And the 7bn is as Mendel explained, or Jay one, is calculated on the size of the market the US is closing factoring in Antigua's market share. GDP size is irrelevant really

[/ QUOTE ]

If Antigua GDP was $1 billion/year and gambling income was 10% of GDP and 70% of that was US, that's 70 million lost a year. How did damages get to be 100 times loss; 7000 million per year from here on out?

[Jay Cohen]

GDP schmee DP. Everyone makes the mistake of taking such numbers as gospel. Who puts them out? Where do they come from?

There are reasons that number is not very accurate or representative.

The Sun article wasn't totally correct. Antigua's claim is for $3.4 billion per year, not total. The figure represents lost revenue as a result of US harrassment which has been significant. The online gaming industry in Antigua has been operating under attack for years. It's not about what the industry made over the period, it's about what it could have made if it had the unfettered access to the US market that the US committed to in the GATS.

As to the second part, the amount the withdrawal of the commitment is worth, do the math. If Antigua's economists are correct, then what is the value of letting the US out of that obligation for a lifetime, or just 20 years?

Antigua did not pull these numbers out of the sky. These are numbers that nationally recognized economists have come up with. Their analysis will be presented to the WTO panel, and I am sure the US will counter. The panel will decide the final figure and method of remedy. If the US wants to hang it's hat on the GDP, that's their perogative. But Antigua will demonstrate why that number is irrelevant in this matter.

[permafrost]

[ QUOTE ]
GDP schmee DP. Everyone makes the mistake of taking such numbers as gospel. Who puts them out? Where do they come from?

There are reasons that number is not very accurate or representative.

The Sun article wasn't totally correct. Antigua's claim is for $3.4 billion per year, not total. The figure represents lost revenue as a result of US harrassment which has been significant. The online gaming industry in Antigua has been operating under attack for years. It's not about what the industry made over the period, it's about what it could have made if it had the unfettered access to the US market that the US committed to in the GATS.

As to the second part, the amount the withdrawal of the commitment is worth, do the math. If Antigua's economists are correct, then what is the value of letting the US out of that obligation for a lifetime, or just 20 years?

Antigua did not pull these numbers out of the sky. These are numbers that nationally recognized economists have come up with. Their analysis will be presented to the WTO panel, and I am sure the US will counter. The panel will decide the final figure and method of remedy. If the US wants to hang it's hat on the GDP, that's their perogative. But Antigua will demonstrate why that number is irrelevant in this matter.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for your reply. Is Antigua claiming $7 billion/year forever or not?