Iggy's Week 6 NCAA Picks

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Didn't get any early lines in this week as I was in Vegas Sunday through Thursday and wasn't really spending a lot of time at my computer handicapping. Have some picks now though. Will post more when my Matchbook offers get matched.

YTD: 24-30-1 ATS/O/U, 1-1 ML, +1.15 units

Arizona/Oregon State over 54 (Risk 2.7u to win 2.5u)
Haven't put as much effort into capping totals this year, but when I've done it in the past, my results are just as good as with sides, and when I was looking at a possible side bet in this game, the over just jumped out at me. First of all, on raw averages, the average total for Arizona this year is 58.4 and the average total for Oregon State is 53.8. So just on the raw numbers, you'd be looking at a slight lean toward the over.

However, this game also features perfect matchups for the offense. Arizona ranks 11th in passing offense and 101st in rushing offense. They do much, much better when they can air it out. Well, Oregon State ranks 3rd in rushing defense, but only 93rd in pass efficiency D. Their strength (run D) is completely useless against the Wildcats who will be able to bomb away to their heart's delight all game long.

The other side of the ball is a little bit tougher to read as Oregon State ranks 32nd in passing offense, but only 103rd in passing efficiency. This is due to the large number of interceptions they've thrown on the season as they lead the country having thrown 15 picks on the year. As far as the over's concerned however, the more they pass the ball the better. When they can run the ball effectively with Yvenson Bernard (their rushing game ranks 64th on the season), they eat the clock and move the ball slowly down the field. However, their passing game makes points one way or the other as they either get yards quickly or give the opponents opportunities for quick scores off of pick sixes or by getting the ball in good field position.

Well, Arizona's going to almost force them to throw the ball as they rank 27th in rushing defense and only 73rd in passing efficency defense. The holes in the secondary will force the Beavers to take shots downfield and lead to the possibility of even more turnovers.

One worrying factor here is that Arizona in particular has faced some high-scoring opponents this year who also fit the matchup criteria pretty well in Washington State, New Mexico, and BYU which would reduce the value of the trend somewhat. Still though, I think a breakeven total would be in the 58-60 range here, giving lots of value to the over.