50NL - Overpair on paired board facing a raise, call or shove

[clowntable]

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Villain is 49/16/1.8 over 500+ hands
I should be something like 20/15/2.6 to him

Hero ($70.65)
SB ($49.50)
BB ($265.10)
UTG ($109.60)
MP ($51.65)
CO ($51.35)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls $0.50, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2.5</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $2, CO calls $2.

Flop: ($7.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5.5</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises to $20</font>, Hero ...

Shove now or call and shove turn (reevaluate on an A). I figured I'm way ahead of his range as I've seen him overplay overpairs in these situations. He's also capable of doing it with air, too.
I'm thinking he will call with QQ/JJ and anything that beats me and probably fold TT.
I think if I call and shove turn he might call with TT and maybe even with 88/77 feeling commited.
Only problem is an A on the turn but it's both unlikely and unlikely to help him.
I actually think he'll fold everything I beat either way because the limp/call is probably not a pair strong enough to call here if beat.

[Asheh]

I dont think villains like this like to show this much strength so early in the hand if he has the 99. You beat everything but 9x and AA. I think this is a really easy shove, if your calling your faced with an even BIGGER decision on the turn shove and if he has the 9 suck it up i guess.

[clowntable]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont think villains like this like to show this much strength so early in the hand if he has the 99. You beat everything but 9x and AA. I think this is a really easy shove, if your calling your faced with an even BIGGER decision on the turn shove and if he has the 9 suck it up i guess.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah I'm not worried about the 9x or AA I mainly care about extracting from TT/JJ

[whyzze]

call and let him continue on with his bluff spew. Shove or minraise turn if need be.

[Asheh]

Well, im not one for extracting at these limits but I guess a call could be fine here. I figure if your getting action on the flop, what cards is he going to give you action with on the turn given a free card?

Maybe it helps him think his QQ/JJ/TT is good, but I think if anything calling and shoving the turn is stronger than shoving the flop. Most people do this often with a set.

Ash.

[thing85]

I like shoving now instead of the turn. If you're looking purely at value extraction, I think there are a number of cards that scare him (probably any K or A) on the turn that would cause him to fold to a turn shove. If you get it in now, most donks will call with an overpair like TT-QQ. If villain has AA, you're going to get stacked anyway, so might as well go for it while you have a shot at his stack.

[scallop]

Wow - 4 replies and no one mentioned villian is never limping TT+ from the CO.

This is a way harder spot than you think. This could be 4x trying to get tricky. 9x playinng it fast, or Air putting you on AK.

So if this range is close, then I'd like to push right here:


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.063% 71.06% 00.00% 36583 0.00 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 28.937% 28.94% 00.00% 14897 0.00 { 99, 44, A4s, JTs, 98s, 54s, A4o, JTo, 98o, 54o }

[whyzze]

its WA/WB. waiting for the turn maximizes value from when we are WA. Shoving here is bad...we are nevr folding out a better hand, and the worse hands should come along on the turn or we at least get another bet out of them.

[meleren]

I call and get it in on any turn.

[scallop]

If you are calling, it means you are hoping he will bluff more into you?