how often will I end up up pos. In this staking agreement?

[imfatandugly]

I'm taking 45 percent of my friends action in the wsoop in the200, 215 rebuy, 500 and1000 Holden events for 50 percent of the buyins. I realize that the probability he does cash is 1- .9 to the fourth but that doesnt give the answer to what im looking for obv.