Would you go to showdown here?

[bills217]

Hand 1 - no reads.

Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) HERO is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises</font>, 2 folds, HERO calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6.33SB, 3 players)
HERO checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets</font>, HERO calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4.67BB, 3 players)
HERO checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets</font>, HERO calls, UTG+1 folds.

River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6.67BB, 2 players)
HERO checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets</font>, HERO...


Hand 2 - Villain is 48/10/1.3.

Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
4 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (4 players) HERO is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">HERO raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">HERO caps</font>, BB calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7.67SB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">HERO bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4.83BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">HERO bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises</font>, HERO...


Hand 3 - no reads.

Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
3 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (3 players) HERO is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Button raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">HERO 3-bets</font>, BB folds, <font color="#cc0000">Button caps</font>, HERO calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (9SB, 2 players)
HERO checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">HERO raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button 3-bets</font>, HERO calls.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7.5BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">HERO bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button raises</font>, HERO...


Hand 4 - same villain as Hand 2, 48/10/1.3.

Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $3/$6
4 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (4 players) HERO is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 2 folds, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">HERO raises</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2.33SB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">HERO bets</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2.17BB, 2 players)
HERO checks, UTG checks.

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2.17BB, 2 players)
HERO checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets</font>, HERO...

[bills217]

For hands 2 and 3 assume a river blank.

[Leader]

Hand 3 is played pretty poorly IMO. I see no point in the flop c/r. Your equity here isn't very good against any of his range. I would call and reevaluate the turn. I would c/c this turn and donk a non club river.

Not betting the turn in hand 4 is a clear mistake also. How has his range changed since the flop? He's not folding that flop. Therefore bet the turn and get paid. As played bet the river he'll call worse A's.

[Sheakspeer]

Hand 1 - I fold . . . maybe check raising the flop is a better line - is this spew? Our outs are more likely to be good as we clear UTG and if he 3 bets the flop it's a clear river fold. He might fear a straight or be less inclined to bet and raise all streets with this board maybe after we have check raised. Of course our turn play is no good no matter what we do after having check raised maybe. Not sure about this, but I think the way you played it is a fold or cry and call IDK - I definately lean towards folding.

Hand 2 - A pre-flop 3 bet from a guy like this usually means trouble. Scare card + waiting for the turn to raise = fold. Is he smart enough to represent a scare card? Maybe. A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]? I doubt it. How much? IDK. This one is probably close.

Hand 3 - Clear fold to me, Villan has shown aggression on every street. I like the turn donk only because we can fold, the donks usually hit the brakes to check raises and especially in this turn situation. Otherwise check calldown, but even that I don't really like. Muck.

Hand 4 - Were you check calling the turn? Bet the turn. River - I call.

Looks like I fold a lot - in order, from most obvious fold to least? 1, 3, 2, 4.

[jstill]

3 is a more obvious fold than 1 i think as played, against an unknown im probably going to showdown in hand 1, in hand 3 i fold before so many bets get in the pot for sure, hand 2 id fold unless you know hes manic with postflop bluff raises, particularly on scarecards not too many villians i know well enough to call down here regularly, if you have Qd its showdown bound though whether I make the flush or not. Hand 4 i call and i like check call better than bet to get a call from a worse ace as I think alot of unimproved flopped over garbage hands will try to steal it after the second check

[TomBrooks]

H1.
I bet the flop possibly taking it down and if you get raised the river decision is easy after you check/call the turn. If you just get called on the flop, the river would still not be crystal clear, but it's still more clear to bet and be called than to check/call. Note your Q outs are shaky, your K outs are not rock solid, you might be playing to 2 Ten outs for a split, and it's even possible a T club give CO a flush.

The way you played it, you might as well call I'd say since you already called it twice when the pot was smaller and you have no idea what CO has since you never challenged him with a bet.

H2.
I fold the turn.

H3.
I fold the flop after putting in 1 SB, not 2. Note if your not already drawing almost dead to the preflopped capped AA, KK, QQ, JJ or AJ or a made flush (unlikely because he'd probably slowplay it with the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]), if Villain raises you w/ A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K offsuit you will lose half the time by the river anyway to one of his 14 outs.

H4.
I bet the turn with probably the best hand to take it down there or make Villain pay to draw, and if he oddly has a 4 or 5 or medium pocket pair you have upwards of 11 outs.

[Caddy_4_Life]

Hands 1 I think is closest. First off here's a stove vs. 15% pfr:

Board: Ks Ad Jc 7c 8c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 65.2778 % 62.96% 02.31% { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }
Hand 2: 34.7222 % 32.41% 02.31% { KdQs }

The stove does not tell the whole story. With this information we're approx. 2:1 dog disregarding how the hand was played. The real question now becomes what % of the time can we expect a random opponent to bet the flop turn and river with the 35% of the hands we beat. Without a read I'm sure we all have differing opinions but for whatever mine is worth I'd think 25% of randoms to do so.

Based on these two rather difficult assumptions, I'd now think our chances of being good at showdown is ~9% (35 x 25%). This is not enough to make a +EV call getting 6.67:1.

Hand 2: This is the second closest hand I believe. Against a LAG I make this call as I'd be suspecting AK(one [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) TT-77(one [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]) exluding 99 obv., just enough to make calling profitable. However we're up against a 40/10/1.3. His aggression is not terrible and I don't think we see enough of these types of players pulling this kind of move. I fold here to the turn raise.

Hand 3: Is spew I think. Given the way you played it, I fold the turn. I'd prefer though from the flop taking a safer calldown line given reasonable turn and river cards.

Hand 4: Def. bet the turn. Def. call the river and I don't think it's close. I'm worried that 1/3 voted for folding on this river.

-Caddy

[TomBrooks]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 4: Def. bet the turn. Def. call the river and I don't think it's close.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hi Caddy. I posted above also recommending a turn bet also, but I didn't say what I'd do as played. Actually, as played I think it's pretty close. Any read/feel I had for the guy plus what my table image was would help me decide but getting only 3:1 it ought to be pretty close when a King comes. I'd actually tend to fold without a read that he takes shots, and it depends on how I've been playing him lately also. For instance if I've checkraised him lately and got him concerned about that happening or not.

[Caddy_4_Life]

Hi Tom,

Without any other information, other than his stats (as presented), what's making my mind up about hand 4 is the fact that we already checked the turn and Villain checked through. A King falls on the river and we wanna check again??? There isn't too many players at this point who would be fearing a check/raise from us. Villain here is 48/10/1.3. His agg. fairly reasonable. I wouldn't classify him as passive. He's aggressive enough I believe that I think all too often Villain will think we dislike our holding enough and will try to take a stab at the pot. At 48VPIP there is a very healthy range we're still are ahead of here.

With all that said, I do believe if Hero would have bet the turn and got called, our river decision would have been much much closer.

-Caddy

[bills217]

The reason I check-called Hand 4 is, we're in a really bad spot if Villain decides to raise us on the turn with another A-high or a 4 or 5 or 2 or 6 or overcard garbage, so I could see him doing that with a wide range of hands potentially. What would you guys do if you bet and get raised there?

Plus I was confident Villain would bet anyway after my flop bet/turn check...the Villains I play against bet this turn 100% of the time after you show weakness...why should I bet and risk getting raised when he'll charge himself anyway?

Edited to add: Wow just noticed he actually checked behind on the turn, lol...make that 100% a 95%, but the point is still the same. In hand 2, which came before this hand, he showed down KhKd, so I knew he wasn't ultra-passive and that gave me reason to think he would bet after I slow down (which almost always happens it seems like).