Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Turn

[Paul Thomson]

Way too tired to make a decent post. Quick thoughts.

I can't believe the Villian checked. If he mini-raises the flop, I think he's obligated to lead out and bet the turn. This lends itself to my theory that our opponent is a donk disguised as a villian.

All my posts up to this point were designed to keep the pot small because I feared that the Villian pressure us into folding. But now that he checked the turn on one of the best possible cards that could come off, I'm going to value bet.

I would bet around half the pot so that the Villian doesn't have odds to call with a draw. I still hope it's small enough that he calls. If he raises us all-in, I'm going to call with the 75% pot equity I gave the hero in my last pot.

Must sleep now.

[Paul Thomson]

For some reason, I'm unable to edit my earlier post. There's a typo that I don't want people to think effected the numbers.

[ QUOTE ]
Note that the above groupings account for all 47 unseen river cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

It should obviously read, "account for all 46 unknown river cards."

You can actually count that found the pot equity for all 46 unknown river cards...and trust me, I literally did. In addition, I used the correct number 46 in all my calculations. Check them yourselves.

Good night.

[KneeCo]

Very strange check. I'm beginning to strongly suspect that the villain is not very good, check-min-raising the flop and then checking the turn? I can't think of two cards with which I would say he is playing the hand particularly well (from his POV of course, not knowing Hero's cards). Can anyone else?

In the first thread of the series, I said that he may very well check-raise the flop with nothing, because the flop seems to have missed Hero much more often than not (assuming standard starting hands). When that check raise turned out to be a mini raise, it seemed not as likely that the villain was just trying to get Hero to cont. bet and fold. Now, the check on the turn muddles things up again.

Nevertheless, I believe strongly that Hero is ahead here and the villain, and must bet. It's very possible that the villain is on a draw here, and the CR was a semi-bluff designed to win the pot right there, or get a free river card if the turn didn't hit him. Hero simply cannot give a free card here when so many cards can hurt him (this is especially true in this hand, because while there are obvious trouble cards, Hero's hand can quite easily be beat by a number of river cards that seem like bricks).

There is now t770 in the pot, and Hero has t2160 behind. I think a bet of 600 is appropriate. If the villain check raises again, I would have to cringe at the thought that he is holding the two remaining 5s or the like (and was curiously not deterred by the draw-heavy board), but while I may think at such a juncture it's possible that I would be behind, I don't think that would be the case often enough to muck the hand, and I would probably go all-in with bottom two on this board, especially given that we are playing in a tournament where only 5% of the field makes the money (an important consideration when looking at this hand IMO, despite the fact that's it early on in the tournament).

[Sluss]

My first instinct is to fire 400 at this pot. Of course that's without thinking of why he checked. I'm still giving him credit for some sort of a hand. He would probably slow down with most of his vunerable holdings here i.e. flush draw,straight draw, top pair.

This has a good posiblity of being a scare card for him if he put us on big cards. That said if he is going to c-raise me I don't want him jamming, though I am becoming more likely to call that jam. So I would lead out for slightly more than half at 400.

If he calls on the turn then I'm calling any bet on the river and value betting any non [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or straight card.

Of course this all flys in the face of my original get this hand to a showdown thought process. This is normally the point where I become an overagressive donk with bottom two and get shown a set or a turned top two and walk away from the tourney wondering why I'm running so bad.

[madmisha]

Given two things, the type of tourney, where I am trying to build a big stack for the limited spots, and how vulnerable our hand is to draws and being counterfeited, I would push.
After a pot-sized bet you are obligated to call any river bet if villian hits his draw and bets. I would rather get the money in while I am ahead and push right now. I think you are still getting called by many draws and pair plus gutshots hands villian might have given his play so far.

[durron597]

I absolutely think that we have to fire again here. Remember, the CO called a preflop raise from us. The only hands that might have hit that board harder than we did are pocket pairs like 99 (or the rare 77/55, given our hand). The other hands with legitimate value on this board are like the overcard/flush draw type hands, and those hands are so much more common given the preflop action that we absolutely must bet here.

The queen is a very safe card for us. Though I think we are going to gave to give action if we get checkraised again because of the possibility of our villian having A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], or a hand like 88, maybe 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8x. The problem, though, is that it's very difficult for villian to put us on a very strong hand because we raised preflop, which means I think we are committed to putting in the rest of our stack here unless a bad card comes on the river. I bet 500 here, call another checkraise, call a river bet and check behind if checked to.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Although I disagree Everett, you are a really good poster. Nothing better than backing up an unconventional idea with a lot of reasoning.

[/ QUOTE ]

[grandgnu]

1) What do you make of the villain's check? What are you asking yourself / thinking about in order to make the best decision?

He tried to take the pot away on the flop and it failed. He's seen we haven't backed down, and the turn card doesn't appear to have helped him, so he's slowing down. We are still ahead, although Villian may still have outs. He might be hoping we'll check and give him the free card

2) Any thoughts on a range of hands?

Well, I think his range is still likely about the same as before. He either hit a piece of this flop with low or middle type cards, perhaps suited one-gappers or connectors. But we did'n't go away on the flop, so now he isn't sure his top pair is any good, etc. Or, he missed his draw and doesn't want to get the pot any bigger and is hoping for the river card to save him

3) Do you check or bet? If you're betting, how much and what's your plan if he check-raises again? Do you have a plan for the river and if so, what is it?

I bet, I'm not giving him any free cards. His flop min check-raise failed to push us out and he's checking to us on the turn card which doesn't appear to have improved his hand. People who try to check-raise twice in a row tend to be inexperienced players, so if he does this again (since a good player would likely bet for value or be worried about us drawing out if he's got the straight and there's a flush draw possible). I'm betting between 500 to the pot total, try to take it down now. I believe we're still ahead, but Villian may have outs on the river. If he check-raises again, I'm likely pushing all-in, cause that move on his part would just annoy the hell out of me. :P

If we believe that Villian is drawing extremely thin, we might check and hope to induce a bluff on his part on the river. But, given the multitude of potential holdings, I still prefer to take this down, instead of risk a scare card allowing Villian to bluff us out on the river.

[tipperdog]

I am very happy with the turn card, for the obvious reason that it fails to complete any of the draws villan might have been playing.

I am absolutely value-betting here and, as on the flop, I am willing to commit my stack if opponent check-raise pushes. His turn check suggests a hand is isn't terribly wild about, A5, A9, any two [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. A hand like JT [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is marginally improved by the Q, but it's still way behind.

So I make a solid value bet here, around T500. I plan to bet the river if a safe card comes and I am checked to. I will also likely call a river bet if my opponent leads out.

[grossmeyer]

In a smaller buy-in tourney, I would now make a note on the villain that would simply say "donk." In a bigger tourney like this, it stills screams donkey to me, but it scares me too, a LOT more than the min c/r. In the heat of the moment, I imagine the check would throw me off and I would check behind. With time to think about it, I concur that a bet of ~500 is good. I'll push a c/r; if he calls I'll value-bet a river blank. If the river is the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and he bets out (not all-in), I retch my guts out and probably call.


-Gross