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#11
11-23-2005, 02:04 AM
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Turn
The check says to me that he is not concerned with me taking a free card. Or perhaps he just hit his two pair. Or perhaps he has a range on me that says I will bet this if he checks.
I have a general rule that says when an opponnent doesn't do what I expect him to do, I should worry. I expected him to bet here. He didn't. WTF? OK, what if he had KQ. He made a bluff on the flop, but now he actaully has something. All of a sudden he is confused and doesn't know what to do. He had you figured for a bluff, but then you called his flop raise. He needs more info before he can act again. I don't want to make things hard for him. I bet 450 here. It is wrong for him to call any draw here as he will be paying 450 into 1200 with a 20% draw. His one pair hand will feel ok calling this. If he raises? Well, I'm sorry, I just don't make big folds. I gotta call him down. 
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#12
11-23-2005, 02:04 AM
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Turn
[ QUOTE ]
Im betting 500 and calling a push. I think the villain is checking out of fear, not as a trap. He has a huuuuuge range, everything from a big semi bluff, to a set I'd say, or even a total bluff if hes that type of player. [/ QUOTE ] i like this too except i bet 600.
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#14
11-23-2005, 02:36 AM
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Turn
Villian's check can mean a number of things including a bluff giving up, a semi-bluff hoping his weird small c/r on the flop will buy him a free river, a nine hoping to get to showdown cheaply, a bluff w/ a queen that now wants to get to showdown, Q9 that was testing the water on the flop but just got there and now is looking for you to hang yourself, a flushdraw that tried to take it down on the flop and is now looking to see the river, the flopped nuts looking to get trap you now on the turn.
In short, you are waaay ahead of his range and w/ one card to come, have less to worry about. However, your hand is still vulnerable and should obviously be bet. Since it's so likely that his hand includes some sort of draw that will call up to pot sized bets, I like that size or close to it. I'm going w/ ~700 here. (and calling a push)
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#15
11-23-2005, 02:51 AM
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Turn
I like a checkbehind here, planning to call most river bets and probably bet the river myself if checked to again.
Whoa, hold the presses, checking here with a vulnerable hand on a drawtastic board? Yeah my immediate thought was "bet that, quick!" but I think that betting doesn't have a ton of value and can create a big pot when you don't necessarily want one here. Lets break it down: A) He has a marginal hand like J9/A7/88/78 These are sticky hands to give free cards too, since not only do they have a nontrivial number of outs but they also can get afraid of scare cards on the river (imagine the Kh falling, it will be hard to get a value bet). HOWEVER, I still like a check. For one, I think these hands also fold the turn a large percentage of the time. Second, if the river bricks they'll often bet out again or check/call, and a fair number of rivers are bricks. Third, if a scare card falls, they may check/call because of the obvious chance of you bluffing in tha position. B) He's on a draw Yes we give him a free river and will pay off a value bet, but we also get him to fire with nothing when he bricks a decent amount of the time (and he bricks more often than he hits). Basically we can have this hand out with a bet and win 0 chips from him (but also lose 0 chips), or check and lose 500 chips <20% of the time and win 500 chips maybe 30-40% of the time (assuming he bluffs 1/3-1/2 the time he misses). As a minor point I don't think a draw is as likely as other hands given the flop action (though i guess pair combo draws like 96 or 87 make some sense). C) He has total air We give him a chance to stab again. If we make a strong bet he is highly likely to give up on it. We aren't planning a river fold so this line clearly maximizes for this scenario. D) He has a better made hand (97/68/99/QQ/Q7/whatever). Obviously we save our stack here by just calling a river bet. The pot is still sane and we'll be in fine shape. If he checks trhe river the chance of us being beat shrinks significantly so we can safely attempt to suck some value from those marginal made hands (t4-500 or so) So basically we keep the pot manageable and keep him so utterly in the dark about our hand that we can get nearly maximum value from most anything he can have. Intuition says to bet here but I stand by my line. Everett
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#17
11-23-2005, 03:02 AM
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Turn
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Im betting 500 and calling a push. I think the villain is checking out of fear, not as a trap. He has a huuuuuge range, everything from a big semi bluff, to a set I'd say, or even a total bluff if hes that type of player. [/ QUOTE ] i like what ansky said. [/ QUOTE ]
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#18
11-23-2005, 03:22 AM
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Turn
Nice post, but I definitely disagree.
[ QUOTE ] A) He has a marginal hand like J9/A7/88/78 These are sticky hands to give free cards too, since not only do they have a nontrivial number of outs but they also can get afraid of scare cards on the river (imagine the Kh falling, it will be hard to get a value bet). HOWEVER, I still like a check. For one, I think these hands also fold the turn a large percentage of the time. Second, if the river bricks they'll often bet out again or check/call, and a fair number of rivers are bricks. Third, if a scare card falls, they may check/call because of the obvious chance of you bluffing in tha position. [/ QUOTE ] This is your strongest argument. However, I don't know that this is an instant fold to A9-ish hand if we bet out t500-t600, and I disagree that that we can get a call on all scare cards. I think villain's pretty likely to put us on a heart draw after our flop play, so I think we lose value on ~1/4 of rivers. I think you're right that we get more money from these hands by checking than by betting, but I think this factor is smaller than you think it is. [ QUOTE ] B) He's on a draw Yes we give him a free river and will pay off a value bet, but we also get him to fire with nothing when he bricks a decent amount of the time (and he bricks more often than he hits). Basically we can have this hand out with a bet and win 0 chips from him (but also lose 0 chips), or check and lose 500 chips <20% of the time and win 500 chips maybe 30-40% of the time (assuming he bluffs 1/3-1/2 the time he misses). As a minor point I don't think a draw is as likely as other hands given the flop action (though i guess pair combo draws like 96 or 87 make some sense). [/ QUOTE ] You left out in your assessment the money already in the pot that we lose if he hits his draw, and the chance that villain calls our ~t500 bet with a draw. Those two factors change things a lot. [ QUOTE ] C) He has total air We give him a chance to stab again. If we make a strong bet he is highly likely to give up on it. We aren't planning a river fold so this line clearly maximizes for this scenario. D) He has a better made hand (97/68/99/QQ/Q7/whatever). Obviously we save our stack here by just calling a river bet. The pot is still sane and we'll be in fine shape. [/ QUOTE ] I think villain could easily have air here, but I doubt he bets the river frequently if he decided to give up on the turn. As I said before, the odds that he has us beat are pretty insignificant.
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#20
11-23-2005, 04:01 AM
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Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Turn
Alright I finally got a hold of Pokerstove and have been playing with some numbers. Here's what I found:
I had to take some liberty in making assumptions for our opponents range of hands...sorry if you disagree. PREFLOP--Opponents range of hand: Any pocket pair Any suited connectors (45 and above--throws away 23s etc) Any one-gap suited connectors (46 and above), AQ+ (AK, AQ) FLOP: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] We could discuss the implications of this, but it gets much more interesting if we limit the range of our opponents hand after the flop betting. Action: BB checks. Hero bets t140. BB raises to t300. The pot has $610. TURN--Opponents range of hand Any pocket pair 55+ (55,66,77, etc), Any flush draw Any straight draw Any made straight (68) Any pair with a gut draw (56s,67s,78s,89s,9Ts...not hearts) Any 9Js (not hearts). Any AK Any AQs I left in AK & AQs (only if suited) because that would mean that the opponent bluffed with 10% of his hands, which is what Harrington says is typical. TURN POT EQUITY--Opponents Limited Range: Hero's Equity= 75% of the pot Villian's Equity= 25% of the pot Then I figured the pot equity for the Hero and Villian based upon different River cards: POT EQUITY--Based on various River cards and Villian's limited range of hands as stated above: River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Hero's Equity= 95% Villian's Equity= 5% River: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Hero's Equity= 83% Villian's Equity= 17% River: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Hero's Equity= 73% Villian's Equity= 27% River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Hero's Equity= 86% Villian's Equity= 14% River: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Hero's Equity= 68% Villian's Equity= 32% River: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Hero's Equity= 57% Villian's Equity= 43% River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Hero's Equity= 52% Villian's Equity= 48% River: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Hero's Equity= 50% Villian's Equity= 50% Below Hero has less equity: River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Hero's Equity= 46% Villian's Equity= 54% River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Hero's Equity= 46% Villian's Equity= 54% River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Hero's Equity= 42% Villian's Equity= 58% River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Hero's Equity= 37% Villian's Equity= 63% Thoughts: It was more or less what I expected, but I thought that it was interesting that the 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] reduced the Hero's equity almost as much as an 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I guess being counterfeited has a large influence. Implications: So I grouped every possible card that could come on the river into a set based upon how significantly it effected Hero's pot equity. GROUP A: River 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for a total of 10 cards. Hero's Equity= 95% GROUP B: River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (in other words, without a heart) for a total of 6 cards. Hero's Equity= 89% of the pot. GROUP C: River: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (in other words, w/out a heart) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for a total of 10 cards. Hero's Equity= 83-86% of the pot. GROUP D: River: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for a total of 6 cards. Hero's Equity= 68-73% of the pot. GROUP E: River: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for a total of 7 cards. Hero's Equity= 50-57% of the pot. GROUP F: River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for a total of 6 cards. Hero's Equity= 42-46% of the pot. GROUP G: River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for a total of 1 card. Hero's Equity= 37% SO WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN?: Note that the above groupings account for all 47 unseen river cards. The pot has $770 On the River (assuming no betting): Group A: Hero's Pot Equity 22% of the time will be $732 (95% of the pot)=$161 Group B: Hero's Pot Equity 13% of the time will be $685 (89% of the pot)=89 Group C: Hero's Pot Equity 22% of the time will be $651 (84.5% of the pot)=$143 Group D: Hero's Pot Equity 13% of the time will be $562 (73% of the pot)=$73 Group E: Hero's Pot Equity 15% of the time will be $416 (54% of the pot)=$62 Group F: Hero's Pot Equity 13% of the time will be $346 (45% of the pot)=$45 Group G: Hero's Pot Equity 2% of the time will be $285 (37% of the pot)=$6 RIVER POT EQUITY: The weighted sum of the Hero's Pot Equity on the River based upon the opponents range of hands w/out future betting: Pot Equity = (.22x732)+(.13x685)+(.22x651)+(.13x562)+(.15x416)+ (.13x346)+(.02x285) = $579 RIVER POT EQUITY= $579 or 75% of the pot Note that this is the exact same number that Poker Stove gave for our pot equity at the top of this post. So how can you and I use this? Dicuss what you'd do differently if a card from Group A vs Group B vs Group C vs Group D vs Group E came on the River. And you can discuss it in terms of how it effects the Hero's pot equity!! What amount to bet on the Turn? If we check the turn, what amount must we induce from the villian which will not risk our equity? Or discuss why my range of hands for the Villian sucked and why I suck and why this post was a big waste of time. Or if someone wants to start a post about what the Villian's range is, and there is some consensus then I'd be happy to use it. I made a similar analysis for the turn card about an hour ago. Here is the link: Turn Card Pot Equity I hope this is helpful.
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